Why a Bluesky integration could be good:

• Content cross-pollination: Manifold users get to see more interesting content from off platform, and Bluesky users get more interesting content from Manifold, which in turn makes Manifold users more likely to invest more time in creating content because it has wider reach and less platform lock-in, etc.

• User growth: We can probably pull some users away from the Bluesky app to Manifold

• Better discovery for markets / native support for trading

• Better epistemic tooling: Manifold users have a concrete track record of their predictive prowess. We can surface this to help users determine how seriously they should take certain tweets / users. We can also surface markets in response to specific tweets to serve as our own form of Community Notes.

• Mana: What does a social network look like with an in-game currency? Using mana we can support things like tipping, rewarding users for good posts, fining users for spam, etc.

Why it could be bad:

• Bad vibes: The current Bluesky userbase has an unusually large concentration of annoying and insufferable people. Some are cool, but the reputation of the platform as a whole today is honestly not great. Integrating with Bluesky is a bet that the platform will have broader appeal in the future.

• Too early: Bluesky is still an early stage startup. It could just die. It may be unwise to hitch our wagon to them at their current size.

• Brand dilution: It shifts the focus away from markets and potentially weakens the Manifold brand.

• Elon mad: We could be shadowbanned and deboosted on Twitter, which is one of our larger growth channels

@SG Elon, if you're reading this, we'd love to integrate with X even more if you'd let us! 👉👈

If the idea is to have users browse social media through the site while letting them trade on any information they find, I think that's interesting but tough to get right

If the idea is to attract new users from Bluesky specifically, I don't think that's going to be very successful