If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?
22
10kṀ28k
Dec 31
20,016 DAUs
expected
69%
Above 10,000
17%
Above 20,000
10%
Above 50,000
6%
Above 100,000

"Integrates Bluesky" means adding some sort of account-linking with Bluesky and showing a Bluesky feed somewhere prominently on Manifold (such as replacing the Explore tab or homepage).

"Active users in 3 months" means the the 7 day average of daily Active Users at the end of the 3 month period following Bluesky integration (even if we later remove the integration before the 3 month period is over). We currently report the DAU number on our stats page and will probably keep using the same methodology for current aspects of site usage. Scrolling through a Bluesky feed will definitely count toward the definition of active user; other new social actions might as well.

Resolves N/A if Bluesky is not integrated before the end of 2025.

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