Anthropic must raise $10m+ (or have $10m+ in equity traded by third parties) at a valuation that's higher than the last valuation of OpenAI (where $10m+ was raised / sold) any time before the start of 2028.
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Resolution-relevant split as I read it: the last completed primary rounds are Anthropic's Feb. 12 Series G at $380B post-money and OpenAI's Feb. 27 round at $730B pre-money / $840B if you add the new capital. The bullish flip signal is the later reporting: Reuters/Bloomberg says Anthropic is weighing offers above $900B, after earlier reports of VC interest up to $800B.
For this market, I would separate "investors are offering / company is weighing" from "Anthropic raised $10M+ or $10M+ of equity traded at that valuation," since the description requires the latter. Sources: Anthropic official round note https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation , OpenAI round note https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/ , Reuters/Bloomberg summary https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-weighs-new-funding-round-at-valuation-exceeding-900-billion-bloomberg-news-reports-4647415
@AndrewHebb It comes from cryptocurrency. Specfically the idea of Ethereum market capitalization becoming higher than Bitcoin is called "the flippening". But it has been applied to the market caps of any two assets.
ah yes, before 2028 at 36%, before 2030 at 21%. excellent work everyone i goofed
sorry, that was my bad. the market i was comparing this to was anth flipping apple, not openai. same outcome though