If the Chilean Central Bank or any well-respected international organization (think OECD, IMF, BID) publishes Chilean Real GDP growth above zero for 2023, this market will resolve YES.
Interesting articles/ data:
Update: Market will close when any organization mentioned above publishes the relevant data.
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I believe this market resolves YES:
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chiles-gdp-slightly-rises-q4-beats-annual-forecast-2024-03-18/
For the entire year of 2023, Chile's economy recorded a 0.2% expansion from the previous year.
Sounds like the relevant figure!
according to data released by the country's central bank on Monday
And from an approved source as specified in the description.
@pietrokc Wow I knew they were going to produce the annual report on March 18th but forgot to check. This is by far the most I’ve ever made percentage wise.
This market is way, way overconfident at 5%. I guess because people keep finding estimates from 2023 which are negative?
I've seen estimates of -0.5, -0.4, zero, and +1.5-2. Guess what, measuring gdp is really hard, and often corrections come out larger than 0.5%. Estimating gdp is even harder.
So, will Chile see gdp growth? I don't know. I can believe the chance is less than 50%. But 5%? That's crazy, nobody can be that confident in gdp estimates.
@pietrokc Agreed. There is a reasonable chance it comes out 0.1 to 0.5% growth especially as Q3 had already reverted from negative to positive growth.
IMF lists it at -0.5 for 2023, I think this can resolve now
@Bohreromir You're looking at an outlook from October 2023 I believe
Edit: it says as much at the top of your screenshot.
The past comment here was wrong
.
World Bank has just released its Global Economic Prospects Report 2024 , where it shows an estimate for "Real GDP growth" at -0,4 for 2023. Though it's still an estimate, I believe has more relevance than the Trading Economics.
See the last row below:
Also in the footnotes:
@STGO Ah, I appreciate the distinction, but thought the page was referring to the latter. Does "GDP Annual Growth Rate" mean annualised QoQ, or YoY? How annoying. I'll see if I can figure out which is being referred to.
@chrisjbillington Got it, "GDP Annual Growth Rate" must mean annualised QoQ, whereas Trading Economics has what we want as "Full Year GDP Growth", currently forecasting +0.3%:
https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/full-year-gdp-growth