I'm pretty sure you aren't supposed to reopen a market just to trade on it

@jacksonpolack Wow well spotted. That's pretty messed up. @STGO have some class

@pietrokc Seriously. That reopening of the market and betting also triggered a limit order I had forgotten thinking the market is closed. Really crappy behavior and I’ll never bet on a market of yours again @STGO

okay to be fair the norms aren't that obvious

@jacksonpolack I don’t think not reopening to cash is a non obvious norm.

Pinging @STGO for resolution, see below.

I believe this market resolves YES:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chiles-gdp-slightly-rises-q4-beats-annual-forecast-2024-03-18/

@pietrokc

For the entire year of 2023, Chile's economy recorded a 0.2% expansion from the previous year.

Sounds like the relevant figure!

according to data released by the country's central bank on Monday

And from an approved source as specified in the description.

why did neither of you buy yes lol

@jacksonpolack market was closed, sadly

@jacksonpolack What Chris said, but also I'm here to forecast, not rush to report news

@pietrokc Wow I knew they were going to produce the annual report on March 18th but forgot to check. This is by far the most I’ve ever made percentage wise.

@voodoo lol nice same here

This market is way, way overconfident at 5%. I guess because people keep finding estimates from 2023 which are negative?

I've seen estimates of -0.5, -0.4, zero, and +1.5-2. Guess what, measuring gdp is really hard, and often corrections come out larger than 0.5%. Estimating gdp is even harder.

So, will Chile see gdp growth? I don't know. I can believe the chance is less than 50%. But 5%? That's crazy, nobody can be that confident in gdp estimates.

@pietrokc Agreed. There is a reasonable chance it comes out 0.1 to 0.5% growth especially as Q3 had already reverted from negative to positive growth.

IMF lists it at -0.5 for 2023, I think this can resolve now

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CHL

@Bohreromir You're looking at an outlook from October 2023 I believe
Edit: it says as much at the top of your screenshot.

@voodoo woops, sorry. You are right

The past comment here was wrong

Why not

@d That’s a forecast and has been around for a while. See Santiago’s comment below.

.

World Bank has just released its Global Economic Prospects Report 2024 , where it shows an estimate for "Real GDP growth" at -0,4 for 2023. Though it's still an estimate, I believe has more relevance than the Trading Economics.

See the last row below:

Also in the footnotes:

Trading Economics' forecast is for 2%:

https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/gdp-annual-growth-rate

@chrisjbillington Just for Q4. Market is FY2023

@STGO Ah, I appreciate the distinction, but thought the page was referring to the latter. Does "GDP Annual Growth Rate" mean annualised QoQ, or YoY? How annoying. I'll see if I can figure out which is being referred to.

@chrisjbillington Got it, "GDP Annual Growth Rate" must mean annualised QoQ, whereas Trading Economics has what we want as "Full Year GDP Growth", currently forecasting +0.3%:

https://tradingeconomics.com/forecast/full-year-gdp-growth