Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Ṁ1kṀ9.4k

Dec 31

45%

chance

ALL

Resolution criteria

Artemis II resolves YES if it launches before Starship Flight 12. Artemis II is scheduled for no earlier than February 6, 2026, with a launch window extending through April 2026. Starship Flight 12 is targeted for Q1 2026. Resolution will be determined by official launch confirmations from NASA and SpaceX respectively.

Background

Artemis II will carry four astronauts—NASA's Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen—on a 10-day mission around the Moon. Starship Flight 12 will be the first Starship test flight involving Block 3 vehicles, likely featuring Booster 19 and Ship 39. Both vehicles are expected to undergo testing in the February to March timeframe.

Considerations

Both missions face potential delays common to complex spaceflight programs. Artemis II has already experienced multiple delays, with the October 2024 Inspector General review indicating the September 2025 target was unlikely to hold, leading to a December 2024 announcement of an April 2026 target. Starship Flight 12's flight profile remains largely unknown, with SpaceX potentially opting for soft splashdown of both vehicles given the introduction of the untested Block 3 design.

Artemis II - NASA

Four astronauts will venture around the Moon on Artemis II, the first crewed mission on NASA's path to establishing a long-term presence at the Moon for science and exploration through Artemis. The 10-day flight will help confirm systems and hardware needed for early human lunar exploration missions.

Description generated with AI and edited to make resolution more general. Please let me know if you find any issues. Good luck!

Market context

Starship Launch Party

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

What day will Artemis II launch?

Will Artemis II launch in March?

1% chance

When will Artemis II launch?

5/19/26

Will Artemis II launch before 2027?

89% chance

When will Starship flight 12 happen?

Will Artemis 2 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?

95% chance

Will Artemis II fly without Orion?

1% chance

Will Starship flight 12 happen before New Glenn flight 3?

23% chance

What will happen successfully during Starship flight 12?

Will Artemis II be delayed?

Sort by:

https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/artemis-ii-mission-availability.pdf

Found a nice diagram for launch windows of Artemis 2. Curious when NO betters are expecting Artemis to delay till and when they might suspect Starship 12 flight to happen.

Whats your theory?

Personally I would be buying Yes till 90%.

opened a Ṁ2,000 NO at 85% order

@RyanTyznar 2,000 no at 85 limit order up. Valid today only.

@Bayesian its at least a 4 figure limit order if you are interested

@MRME lol i guess i jinxed it! i wont bet on my own market but im still curious why so high. There’s no real signs of a starship 12 launch just yet unless im missing something.

@RyanTyznar If you believe Elon time, Starship is early to mid march.

Artemis windows are early march or early April.

So if Artemis is delayed further, starship launch before Artemis seems like a real possibility. If neither are delayed, there is a at least a small chance Starship goes first.

I think Artemis is still more likely to go first than starship, but I'd believe the 60-80% range a lot more than the 90%+ range. At 90% (your claim), you are basically assigning a 0% chance of further Artemis delay AND ignoring the "out" of starship beating Artemis by just a day in early March or something like that.