Resolution criteria

Artemis II resolves YES if it launches before Starship Flight 12. Artemis II is scheduled for no earlier than February 6, 2026, with a launch window extending through April 2026. Starship Flight 12 is targeted for Q1 2026. Resolution will be determined by official launch confirmations from NASA and SpaceX respectively.

Background

Artemis II will carry four astronauts—NASA's Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen—on a 10-day mission around the Moon. Starship Flight 12 will be the first Starship test flight involving Block 3 vehicles, likely featuring Booster 19 and Ship 39. Both vehicles are expected to undergo testing in the February to March timeframe.

Considerations

Both missions face potential delays common to complex spaceflight programs. Artemis II has already experienced multiple delays, with the October 2024 Inspector General review indicating the September 2025 target was unlikely to hold, leading to a December 2024 announcement of an April 2026 target. Starship Flight 12's flight profile remains largely unknown, with SpaceX potentially opting for soft splashdown of both vehicles given the introduction of the untested Block 3 design.

Artemis II - NASA

Four astronauts will venture around the Moon on Artemis II, the first crewed mission on NASA's path to establishing a long-term presence at the Moon for science and exploration through Artemis. The 10-day flight will help confirm systems and hardware needed for early human lunar exploration missions.

Description generated with AI and edited to make resolution more general. Please let me know if you find any issues. Good luck!