Which Rocket Launches Next?

Question

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves to whichever rocket launches first, determined by the actual liftoff time. SLS (Artemis II) is scheduled no earlier than March 6, 2026, though NASA announced the launch would be postponed to March 2026 due to a liquid hydrogen leak during a wet dress rehearsal. Starship Flight 12 is currently targeted for March 2026, with Elon Musk stating "Starship launch in 6 weeks" giving a NET of March 9th 2026. New Glenn's third launch is not expected before January 2026, and Vulcan GPS III SV-10 is currently targeted for 2026. Resolution will be based on official launch announcements from NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ULA respectively.

Background

Artemis II will carry NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen, on a free-return trajectory around the Moon. Starship Flight 12 will be the first Starship Test Flight involving Block 3 vehicles. New Glenn's maiden flight took place on January 16, 2025 from Cape Canaveral Launch Complex 36, serving as the first of several demonstration flights required for certification for the National Security Space Launch program. The tenth and final GPS Block III launch is projected in FY2026.

Considerations

All four candidates have experienced significant delays historically. Artemis II's schedule was delayed by more than two months due to investigations into issues with Orion's life support system and unexpected damage to Orion's heat shield. The Super Heavy booster originally slated for Flight 12 buckled during testing in late November, forcing SpaceX to use a replacement vehicle. Blue Origin has managed two New Glenn launches in 2025, with the third launch not expected before January 2026. GPS III SV10 was shifted to Vulcan when GPS III SV07, intended to launch on Vulcan, was moved to the Falcon 9 in mid-2024 following Vulcan readiness concerns.

This description was generated by AI.

Update 2026-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any mission launched on a rocket listed (SLS, Starship, New Glenn, or Vulcan) will count for resolution, not just the specific missions mentioned in parentheses in the market title/description.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, SLS (Artemis II), followed by Starship (Flight 12) and New Glenn (Blue Bird Block 2) are most likely. See the market for live updates (16 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).