Will the FTC interfere with Adobe's acquisition of Figma?

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Ṁ2840

resolved Nov 3

Resolved

YES

ALL

This resolves to YES if the FTC blocks the acquisition or tries to negotiate with the companies to make it less of a monopoly.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/adobe-receives-us-justice-request-for-more-data-on-figma-deal

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/adobe-receives-us-justice-request-for-more-data-on-figma-deal/2022/11/17/c22cd2c4-66e2-11ed-b08c-3ce222607059_story.html

predicted NO

Related markets

Here are the largest payments that would have to happen to reverse the resolution:

@MP gains M$1425
@AlbertTam loses M$1145
@Botlab loses M$593
@Gabrielle loses M$373
@MichaelDickens gains $231
@Charlie gains M$143
@mholk gains M$108
@RussellS gains M$79
@MichaelWheatley gains M$69
@LivInTheLookingGlass loses M$64
@acc gains M$62
@JohnRoxton loses M$56
@BenDunnFlores loses M$54

Everyone else is under M$30.

predicted YES

@Yev I'd be willing to distribute my winnings (especially since I was the one who mentioned the DoJ article), but I'm not sure how to do it fairly. @MP is clearly owed the most, but others are also owed.

I will try to send the mana to everyone who owned NO. After that anyone who owned YES can send me the mana if they want to.

predicted YES

@Yev Paying 70 in tips now

I tipped @MP @MichaelDickens @RuthGraceWong @mholk @zzq @LuisMartins @ewired.

I could not tip @RussellS @ThomasAichele @adele because they haven't made any markets or comments. Please comment below so I can tip you.

I did not tip @Charlie @MichaelWheatley @acc because they are rich power users who probably don't need my help. Let me know if you do though.

predicted NO

@Yev Thank you guys. I love the community. But we nonetheless need better features around it.

@MP Yes, we'll definitely need a better solution. Hopefully this market will motivate someone to implement it.

predicted NO

@Yev It say Albert Tam loses 1145, is that a typo for 145?

@MichaelWheatley No. Albert went all in on YES, buying 1145 YES shares.

predicted YES

@Yev I’ve tipped M$370.

@Yev Albert is my good friend. I'll tip you for him

@ManifoldMarkets How do I undo resolve?

predicted YES

@RuthGraceWong There is no mechanism for that

predicted NO

@RuthGraceWong Well there's this thing called "manalinks"...

predicted NO

@RuthGraceWong How bad is the damage? Is there any way to see who lost how much? My bot can send back some of the mana it won.

predicted YES

I mean, you could make a binary market, then send a bunch of challenge bets for the amount lost and resolve the market such that everything comes out right

predicted NO

@ManifoldMarkets not having a mechanism to reverse is a obvious problem of the platform. Markets won't show actual probabilities because of the odds of markets resolving incorrectly also being taken into account.

@MP Will mention it, not sure if there is an easy solution.

predicted NO

WTF IS THIS MARKET????
Where did the FTC interfere with the deal????!!!

predicted NO

@MP There's no news whatsoever that the FTC is trying to interfere with the deal.

@MP They issued civil investigative demands https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/02/doj-review-adobe-20-billion-figma-deal-00064671

@MP Actually, reading my original description, you are correct. Let me see if I can undo

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