Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the option that receives the highest percentage of votes in an official poll conducted by the creator on this market page (via comment poll) or an externally linked Manifold poll, closing on or after December 31, 2026.

• Eligibility: The poll will be open to all Manifold users to capture sentiment regarding the impact of AI and automation on job security in their respective fields.

• Ties: If two or more options receive an equal number of votes, the market will resolve as a split among the winning options.

• Fallback Rule: If no poll is conducted by January 7, 2027, this market will resolve based on the option with the highest implied probability (market price) at the time of market close.

Background

As artificial intelligence and automation transition from experimental tools to integrated workflows in 2026, employee sentiment on job security continues to shift:

• Growing Anxiety: A 2026 survey of 3,000 American managers by Beautiful.ai found that 70% of managers believe employees fear AI tools will eventually lead to layoffs, a 12% increase from 2025.

• Worker Sentiment: National polling by Jobs for the Future (JFF) in 2026 showed a flip in general sentiment, with more workers now viewing AI's impact on job hunting and quality of life as a net-negative rather than a net-positive.

• Displacement vs. Creation: While the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report projects 170 million new roles alongside 92 million displaced globally by 2030, the real-world friction of these transitions varies highly by industry.

This market serves as a community poll to gauge whether professionals currently view these developments primarily as a threat, an opportunity, a disruptive force, or a neutral change within their own fields.

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