Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the Rockstar Games Workers' Union (supported by the Independent Workers' Union of Great Britain) achieves statutory recognition under UK labor law before Grand Theft Auto VI releases on November 19, 2026. Statutory recognition requires at least 10 percent union membership within the proposed bargaining unit.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Rockstar Games, Take-Two Interactive, or the IWGB confirming union recognition has been granted. If the union achieves recognition after the GTA VI release date, the market resolves NO.

Background

The Rockstar Games Workers' Union had already recruited 10% of the UK workforce, which meant they could apply for statutory recognition. However, in November 2025, Rockstar fired over 30 union members, which the union alleges was retaliation for organizing efforts. Fired employees stated the union was "very close" to reaching the number of members for statutory recognition, and new union recognition procedures set to be implemented in 2026 would have made the process "easier" for organizing employees.

The IWGB has issued formal legal claims against Rockstar in British courts over the firings. Rockstar maintains the terminations were for "gross misconduct" related to confidential information sharing, while the union characterizes the action as union busting.

Considerations

The union was on the verge of achieving statutory recognition before the mass firing, meaning the threshold for recognition may be achievable again if the union can rebuild membership. The legal proceedings could influence the timeline and outcome of any future recognition attempt. Additionally, new union recognition procedures were set to be implemented in 2026 that would have made the process "easier" for organizing employees, potentially improving the union's prospects in the coming months.