When (EST) will any option on the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" market reach and stay at ≥90%?
Basic
2
Ṁ19
resolved Nov 13
ResolvedN/A
8%
Before 11:00 PM on November 5
11%
Between 11:00 PM on November 5 and 12:59 AM on November 6
11%
Between 1:00 AM and 2:59 AM on November 6
11%
Between 3:00 AM and 4:59 AM on November 6
11%
Between 5:00 AM and 6:59 AM on November 6
11%
Between 7:00 AM and 8:59 AM on November 6
11%
Between 9:00 AM and 10:59 AM on November 6
11%
Between 11:00 AM and 12:59 PM on November 6
11%
After 12:59 PM on November 6

The spirit of this market is "when will Manifold call the 2024 US presidential election?".

Detailed rules:

  • When any option on the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" market reaches 90% or above, and remains at 90% or above for at least 160 of the 180 minutes immediately afterwards, this market resolves according to when the option initially reached ≥90%.

  • If the election market, with an option at ≥90%, resolves in favor of said option before 180 minutes have passed afterwards, this market still resolves according to when the option reached ≥90%.

  • If the election market resolves N/A before this market can be resolved, this market resolves N/A.

  • If the election market resolves in another way (e.g., before an option reaches ≥90%), this market resolves according to when the election market resolved.

  • All times are in EST, as displayed by the Manifold web UI.

  • "The election market" and "the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" market" refer to this market:

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the data seems to not be precise enough? oh well, i'm the only holder and the only other trade was already a wash trade, i'll just n/a

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