Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the Nintendo Switch 2 does not launch on June 5 in any region where, at the time of market creation, it is announced to be released on June 5.
If these conditions are not fulfilled, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 10 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If it turns out to be 1, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves N/A.
Betting guide:
The purpose of this market is to allow betting on extremely long odds for this event. Given the resolution criteria, this market's price should end up at x/(x+(1-x)/10), where x is the actual probability of the event. For example, if you think this has a 1% chance of happening, this market should be at ~9.17%.
Other reference values:
Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For a region to be considered relevant to resolution, its June 5 launch must have been scheduled as of May 26. This clarifies the reference point in time for when a launch needed to be announced, as mentioned in the original description ('at the time of market creation').
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@Robincvgr What regions are being considered? Specifically, what besides North America, Japan, and Europe?
@Robincvgr Ah, I was wondering if you had a list lol. Note for resolution that releasing in some markets is a tad odd (Arabia basically the only place getting a physical Mario Kart World bundle because they can't rely on everyone having consistent internet there)