[Amplified 10x, read description] Will the Nintendo Switch 2's launch be delayed from June 5?
4
10kṀ33kJun 5
5%
chance
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Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if the Nintendo Switch 2 does not launch on June 5 in any region where, at the time of market creation, it is announced to be released on June 5.
If these conditions are not fulfilled, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 10 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If it turns out to be 1, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves N/A.
Betting guide:
The purpose of this market is to allow betting on extremely long odds for this event. Given the resolution criteria, this market's price should end up at x/(x+(1-x)/10), where x is the actual probability of the event. For example, if you think this has a 1% chance of happening, this market should be at ~9.17%.
Other reference values:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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