Will there be more professional programmers at the end of 2024 than there were in 2023?
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Some believe that AI will destroy programming jobs on net. Others believe that there is currently a shortage of programmers, and AI will, by allowing existing programmers to be more productive, improve the productivity of programmers as a group, leading to yet more demands for new features and ideas to be implemented.

Given that even if a good programmer is made redundant, they might still find a new job elsewhere, will AI really lead to a decrease in the number of professional programmers by the end of 2024?

Note that "professional programmers" includes self-employed programmers and programmers working on their own startup ideas, if they are doing it to make money.

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predicts YES

@voodoo We have statistics on the number of programmers in 2023 (along with projections for future years, though there may be reasons to doubt simple projections now), and I expect these kind of statistics to continue being published: https://www.evansdata.com/press/viewRelease.php?pressID=339

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