Some believe that AI will destroy programming jobs on net. Others believe that there is currently a shortage of programmers, and AI will, by allowing existing programmers to be more productive, improve the productivity of programmers as a group, leading to yet more demands for new features and ideas to be implemented.

Given that even if a good programmer is made redundant, they might still find a new job elsewhere, will AI really lead to a decrease in the number of professional programmers by the end of 2024?

Note that "professional programmers" includes self-employed programmers and programmers working on their own startup ideas, if they are doing it to make money.