Will there be more professional programmers at the end of 2024 than there were in 2023?
Dec 31

Some believe that AI will destroy programming jobs on net. Others believe that there is currently a shortage of programmers, and AI will, by allowing existing programmers to be more productive, improve the productivity of programmers as a group, leading to yet more demands for new features and ideas to be implemented.

Given that even if a good programmer is made redundant, they might still find a new job elsewhere, will AI really lead to a decrease in the number of professional programmers by the end of 2024?

Note that "professional programmers" includes self-employed programmers and programmers working on their own startup ideas, if they are doing it to make money.

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predicts YES

@voodoo We have statistics on the number of programmers in 2023 (along with projections for future years, though there may be reasons to doubt simple projections now), and I expect these kind of statistics to continue being published: https://www.evansdata.com/press/viewRelease.php?pressID=339

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