What percentage of Twitter ads served to me will be porn-adjacent in December 2024?
Mini
6
60
Dec 31
24%
0%
45%
1%-25%
10%
26%-50%
10%
51%-75%
10%
76%-100%

"Porn-adjacent" = I would be embarrassed to have the ad pop up on my screen in front of my mother, due to its sexualised nature

Background on this recent phenomenon: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/srAzAEoCnkM6Acfsh/pornographic-and-semi-pornographic-ads-on-mainstream

It seems like due to AIs increasingly being involved in advertising on Twitter, AI misalignment, and the reluctance of a number of mainstream advertisers to advertise on Twitter, the incidence of "porn-y" ads on Twitter is increasing.

Some factors that could increase this:

  • AIs getting better at harvesting clickthroughs, conversions or whatever they are ultimately optimising against, by generating advertising images using the "sex sells" principle

  • Different companies or cybercriminal gangs copying this behaviour because they see that it works

Some factors that could decrease this:

  • AIs finding even more effective techniques than the "sex sells" principle to harvest clickthroughs. (Threatening the user? Telling them that the FBI/IRS is after them?)

  • Elon Musk introducing more human review of ads on Twitter

  • Elon Musk using his considerable AI expertise to crack down on this problem

  • Mainstream advertisers returning to Twitter and pricing out the criminals (unlikely)

I will resolve this market by tallying up the ads I see on Twitter in each category in a spreadsheet in December 2024. If Twitter ceases to exist, this market will resolve N/A.

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interesting - are you seeing porn-adjacent ads on your feed? I'll be more aware after seeing this, but I only get ads for junk products and clickbaity headlines.
just wondering what your baseline is today, since this goes based on your personal feed.

@shankypanky Yes, I talked about it in the linked post, but I didn't give numbers there. I would say it was about 50% yesterday, but I haven't seen any today. Maybe the porn ads guy is taking the day off to spend time with his family.

@RobinGreen right, sorry - I didn't have a moment to dive deeper via the link (I'll have a look)
I wonder if the porn ads guy will hop online with some holiday-themed crossover content