![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252FUCbIRXxQ0Z.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3De385c5fe-6006-4b19-89db-786659432800&w=3840&q=75)
Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?
Mini
3
Ṁ1202032
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Formal methods" includes various techniques such as formal proofs, or using programming languages where the compiler itself formally guarantees security properties.
Techniques that are not formal methods include:
Hope and pray
Ask an AI if the smart contract is safe
Ask an auditor to stare at the smart contract really hard
Ask the original developer(s) to stare at the smart contract really hard (probably equivalent to "hope and pray")
This market resolves as YES if this has been true at any point in time, even if experts later change their mind (e.g. if AIs become better than formal methods at auditing).
If experts say "yes, ideally, but ain't no-one gonna pay for that, pshaw" or "in theory but not in practice" this does not count.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
By 2033 will we have seen a period of at least 24 months where there are no smart contract exploits "stealing" crypto?
16% chance
Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?
53% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
69% chance
By 2030 will the most-used cryptocurrency have none of the highly criticised flaws of those popular in 2024?
29% chance
Will a Millenium problem be formally stated in a theorem prover by 2025
59% chance
Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
31% chance
Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
20% chance
Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?
78% chance
[Metaculus] Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?
18% chance
Do you anticipate significant advancements in blockchain technology by 2030?
75% chance