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MANIFOLD
Will a jellyfish be in full view at 18:00 UTC on August 31, 2022?
28
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1k
resolved Aug 31
Resolved
YES

I will check the Monterey Bay Aquarium moon jellyfish livestream linked below at 18:00 UTC on Wednesday. Resolves YES if at least one jelly is in full view. Resolves NO if there is no jelly visible or the jelly is only partially in frame. If the stream is down resolves N/A.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKZ8I22XU0w

Aug 31, 9:47am: [clarification regarding resolution criteria]

Resolution is based on a single point in time not an extended period. I will grab a screenshot from the stream when my computer clock reads 18:00 UTC on the second and resolve based on that single frame. A couple of examples of views that would resolve YES or NO are pasted below.

YES:

NO:

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A jelly was in view so this resolves to YES!

C'mon jelly.

I have opened the stream at 3 random times so far and there's never been a jelly in full view, so either I'm getting very unlucky or this market is way too optimistic.

predictedYES

@BenjaminCosman I only checked once, but when I bet there was at least one (I think there were two completely in view and several half in view). I think you’re getting at least a bit unlucky.

predictedNO

@Imbens I'm now at 4/4 NOs, though a jelly did swim into view a few seconds later. So I guess one key question is @RobinFoster are we talking about you capturing one single video frame at ~18:00, or are we talking about a jelly being visible at any point in the 60 seconds constituting 18:00?

@BenjaminCosman Oh, huh, the more y'know I thought this one was like the bear market (aka 10 minute period) and was wondering what the heck y'all were doing with your bets, cause I most definitely saw a significant amount of jellies in say a one minute time period. I guess it pays to read the market description :-DD

@BenjaminCosman Yes, resolution is based on the picture at a single point in time not over an extended period. I'll open the stream about 5 mins before 18:00 and then when my computer clock hits 18:00 on the second I'll grab a screenshot.

I'm enjoying these animal livestream markets, even if they are largely gambling.

@FutureOwl Oh yes, it's purely gambling. Prompts a few people to spend 5 mins of their day looking at cool animals though, which has some positive social value I hope.