@BrunoMailly is there a reason you feel the odds on this have changed significantly? I don't see the other similar markets to this moving:
https://manifold.markets/deletedacc/will-twittercom-start-redirecting-t

Will twitter.com start redirecting to x.com before 2024?

25% chance. Resolves when twitter.com itself starts redirecting to x.com (instead of the status quo where x.com redirects to twitter.com)

https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-twittercom-redirect-to-xcom-by

https://manifold.markets/aashiq/will-twittercom-redirect-to-xcom

@RobinBruce Just a (bad) hunch Elon would get things going.

He definitely wants to, something is holding back.

By how I'm reading the wording in the title, if twitter.com redirects to x.com before January 1st, but will later revert back/redirect somewhere else so on January 1st it is no longer true, this would still resolve YES. Is that right?

Also, would a redirect to a subdomain of x.com suffice? (Say twitter.x.com)

@yep These are great questions:

While it’s definitely ambiguous, I’d like to argue there is an implied ‘successfuly’ in here, “Will Elon Musk [successfully] get twitter.com to redirect to x.com”. If there is a change that is so catastrophic that it is reverted shortly afterwards, I don’t think that should count as yes.

A redirect to a subdomain of x.com is fine, so long as it’s a proper redirect (e.g. 301) from the twitter domain. Anything that actually tackles the hard bit should be a YES (changing all the hardcoded references to twitter.com in code and config, and either having a solution for old links or just breaking them).

If the technical change leaves some tiny leftovers that aren’t substantial I would probably still rule YES, like internal company email or something that isn’t substantial to the main problem

@RobinBruce What if twitter.com becomes a stub prominently featuring a link to x?

What if the redirect is to another TLD than .com?

@BrunoMailly Not sure I get the entirety of your questions, but let’s cross those bridges when we come to them - I won’t rule NO on any minor technicality - NO is if core functionality of the site continues to run on twitter.com, possibly after a reverted change, at the end of the year

If there’s like an xinternals.com that is used in replacing twitter.com for core activities that would still be a YES - the technical migration from twitter.com is the substantial aspect here

No amount of links to x.com from twitter.com count as YES unless x.com stops redirecting people back to twitter.com for actual core content.

Obviously the freed-up twitter.com domain then needs to redirect to x.com or any utility TLDs

@RobinBruce this is what I get now still for a curl -v on x.com:

For me to rule YES, that 302 redirect needs to be gone, and not replaced with anything functionally equivalent that eventually has content served from twitter.com

if he does i will feel very bad for all the engineers dealing with problems caused by people hardcoding the domain

@inerati of course, but who could have predicted this?