Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Jakob completes an officially timed, standard marathon (42.195 km / 26.2 miles) with an official net finish time of strictly under 2 hours, 50 minutes, and 00 seconds (< 2:50:00).

This market resolves to NO if Jakob completes a marathon in 2:50:00 or slower, or if he does not complete a marathon under this time before the cutoff date.

Note: The creator should edit this description to specify the cutoff date and clarify if "Jakob" refers to a specific individual (such as the creator, a community member, or the elite runner Jakob Ingebrigtsen) and which specific race(s) are eligible. In the absence of a specified cutoff, the market will default to resolving to NO on December 31, 2026, if no qualifying run has occurred.

Background

A sub-2:50 marathon is a highly competitive benchmark. To achieve this, a runner must maintain an average pace of approximately 6:29 per mile (4:02 per kilometer) continuously for 26.2 miles.

If this market refers to Norwegian middle- and long-distance champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen, a sub-2:50 time is far below his elite physiological capacity (his projected marathon pace based on training models is closer to ~2:03–2:10), meaning any official marathon he completes at a competitive effort would easily satisfy this condition. If the market refers to an amateur runner named Jakob, breaking 2:50 requires rigorous endurance training and places the runner in the upper echelon of recreational athletes.

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