Will Razib Khan vote REPUBLICAN in the 2028 presidential election?
Will Razib Khan vote REPUBLICAN in the 2028 presidential election?
1
100Ṁ52029
52%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Bryan Caplan vote LIBERTARIAN in the 2028 presidential election?
48% chance
Will a Republican be elected president in 2028?
43% chance
Will Tyler Cowen vote REPUBLICAN in the 2028 presidential election?
50% chance
Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?
57% chance
Will Razib Khan attend vibecamp 2025 or 2026?
45% chance
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Presidential election?
4% chance
Will razib Khan become a comedian
29% chance
Republicans win 2028 election?
45% chance
Will Stephen Hsu vote REPUBLICAN in the 2026 Michigan senate midterms?
50% chance
Will RFK Jr. be on the ticket in 2028?
9% chance