🏅 Top traders

Resolving market. Rents decreased $3,600 => $3,388 per Zillow data as of this post. It's possible that number will move a bit (not sure if Zillow updates historicals ever), but pretty clear that it is down.

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/san-francisco-ca/

I've created a new market for SF rents in 2024 here:
https://manifold.markets/RexSalisbury/will-san-francisco-rents-increase-i

Using the zillow average is bad because it is averaging over all bedroom and property types. Hypothetically, if rents go up in both studios and 3 bedrooms, median rent could still go down if the ratio of studios to 3 bedrooms increases since studios will have lower rents than 3 bedrooms.

@sziner However, I see now there is a filter option and that is not the case.

Yes
San Francisco's Rent Ordinance limits rent increases to a certain percentage annually. The Rent Board defines this percentage yearly. As of March 1, 2023, the permitted increase is 3.6%, effective until February 29, 2024, based on 60% of the Bay Area's Consumer Price Index rise. Landlords can't round up these increases and must apply them to a tenant’s base rent only, excluding temporary charges. This rent pertains to the property's base services, e.g., parking. The first allowed increase comes 12 months after a lease starts, with subsequent increases set on the "anniversary date" every 12 months.

https://sf.gov/news/annual-rent-increase-3123-22924-announced

@YasuhiroMizoguchi
In 2023, San Francisco's rent control regulations and guidelines offer a nuanced approach to managing rent increases in the city. Here's an updated analysis based on the latest information:

1. Annual Allowable Increase: For rent-controlled units, the annual allowable increase amount effective from March 1, 2023, through February 29, 2024, is set at 3.6%. This increase is aligned with 60% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers in the Bay Area, which was reported as a 6% increase in November 2022 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

2. Statewide Rent Control Laws: California's statewide rent control laws, effective in late 2019, limit yearly rent increases to a maximum of 10% (5% plus a regional cost-of-living adjustment of no more than 5%). These laws apply to buildings in San Francisco constructed after 1979 but before 2005, offering a broader framework that complements the city's specific regulations.

3. San Francisco Rent Control Ordinance: The city's Rent Control Ordinance, particularly relevant for owners of multi-family properties built before June 13, 1979, tightly regulates annual rent increases. These properties can experience an increase equivalent to 60% of the CPI growth, as disclosed annually by the Rent Board.

4. Supercession of State Regulations: For properties built before June 13, 1979, San Francisco’s rent control regulations take precedence over California’s state regulations. While the state caps the allowable increase at 5% plus the local rate of inflation or 10%, whichever is lower, the city's regulations specifically dictate the increase percentages for older properties.

5. Rent Board's Role and Regulations: The Rent Board's Rules and Regulations, adopted by its Commissioners, govern the implementation of the Rent Ordinance. These rules ensure that the rent control measures are executed in accordance with the city's policies and legal frameworks.

These guidelines reflect San Francisco's effort to balance the needs of both tenants and landlords in a high-demand housing market. The city's approach is characterized by a blend of local and state-level regulations, aimed at maintaining stability and affordability in the rental sector.
https://www.sfaa.org/

Zillow rents <> real rents. Census data is better (and the only source of random public data that I know of).

I believe that in 2023, rents in San Francisco will decrease.

San Francisco has an economy based on Silicon Valley and many technology companies. Since the pandemic, there have been reports of mass layoffs of employees by these companies, higher interest rates from banks, and empty office buildings. This will negatively impact the city's residential real estate market and lower rental rates.

In fact, as of October 2023, rental rates in San Francisco are down -1.9% year over year.

Source:

https://sfstandard.com/2023/02/02/will-the-tech-downturn-be-the-death-of-sf-real-estate/

https://www.rent.com/california/san-francisco-apartments/rent-trends

Will the Tech Downturn Be the Death of SF Real Estate?

Are SF home values in a death spiral—or poised for rebirth? Rental and sales data tell one story; agents point to signs of a rebirth.

Rent decline in 1H'23 is odd given inflation...seems like some combination of greater housing supply and net migration out of SF might be the cause?

1/2 thru the year and rents are down in SF.