Will it be possible for users to invest in manifold questions before 2026?
11
1kṀ1061
2026
44%
chance

Resolves as YES if Manifold has deployed a mechanism allowing users to invest mana (or some other currency/token) in other people's questions before January 1st 2026.

The mechanism must be available to most users. There must be at least 10 questions (written by 10 different users) available on the platform that they can invest in for this to resolve as YES.

The investment must enable the user to (potentially) acquire some sort of reward if they invest in the right questions.

The investment feature must be implemented as new functionality in the interface. The 'reward' must be represented explicitly as some form of currency/token (e.g mana).


The investment/reward mechanism must be distinct from these existing strategies:

  • Subsidizing someone else's market on the hope that it will close far away from the resolution value (kudos to @Eliza for pointing this out)

  • Boosting a market and obtaining a more accurate prediction in return (kudos to @KongoLandwalker )

  • Creating a derivative market B that resolves as "Will market A satisfy criteria X" (kudos to @KongoLandwalker )


This is related to hypothetical solutions to the long-term market incentivization problem. Note that this investment mechanism does not need to successfully achieve this incentivization in order for this question to resolve as YES (kudos to @Daniel_MC).

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