How will Trump v. Selzer resolve? [Iowa Lawsuit over Selzer's Pre-Election Poll]
How will Trump v. Selzer resolve? [Iowa Lawsuit over Selzer's Pre-Election Poll]
7
100Ṁ100Dec 20
36%
Selzer Wins: Court grants Selzer's motion to dismiss or finds her not liable for any damages.
49%
Parties Settle
5%
Trump Wins: Court finds Selzer liable for any amount of damages.
5%
Other
5%
Donald Trump has sued Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, alleging that pollster Ann Selzer's Nov. 2 poll for the Des Moines Register, which showed Harris ahead in Iowa by 3 points, was deceptive to consumers and thus violated Iowa consumer fraud law. What will the outcome of the suit be?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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