If Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire, how many hostages will Hamas release?
15
260Ṁ2981
resolved Mar 19
100%97%
30-59
1.1%
0-29
0.3%
60-89
2%
90+

  • Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Hostages Released: 30 living hostages were released during the ceasefire

    • Resolution Criteria:

    • YES if the number released is between 30-59

    • NO for all other outcomes

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@traders Multiple media outlets have now reported the ceasefire has collapsed with Israel resuming airstrikes in Gaza. The total number of living hostages released under the ceasefire was 30. This market will resolve YES for 30-59 and NO for all other options. Thanks for playing.

Since the ceasefire is now over, I think the market can be resolved.

bought Ṁ10 YES

So far I’ve counted 24 returned hostages in this ceasefire (19 Israeli and 5 Thai). Please correct me I’f I’m wrong.

If Hamas will return 6 living hostages on Saturday as some claim, we will be at 30 hostages.

@Lemming That’s correct. If everything goes according to plan, phase 1 of the ceasefire would conclude with 30 hostages freed.

bought Ṁ27 NO

@ReeMARKable That already happened, 6 living hostages released today, so 30 in total for now.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/22/world/israel-hostages-hamas-gaza

@VonGadke Yup that’s correct. We will see what happens now with phase 2.

Just to give everyone an update, I believe I read earlier in the week that Hamas is currently holding 109 hostages and only 70+ are believed to still be alive.

Just bringing up that recent news are that Hamas said they cannot release 40 living hostages.

I assume the numbers here are for living hostages?

@noney Correct, the question pertains to living hostages only. In regards to the news your referencing, Hamas is saying they do not have 40 living hostages that fall under the specific criteria that Israel is proposing such as women, people over 50 years of age, and people who suffer from medical conditions. Hamas still has 100+ hostages under their control so if they cannot meet Israel’s demands, they may release other hostages that do not fall into those categories in order to meet the required total of 40.

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