Paul Seixas follows or drops Tadej Pogacar on Cote de la Redoute in Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if Paul Seixas and Tadej Pogacar are in the same group of cyclists when they start climbing the Cote de la Redoute, and Seixas is ahead of Pogacar, in the same group of cyclists as him, or less than 2 seconds behind him at the top of the Cote de la Redoute. Resolves NO otherwise.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 24% chance (5 traders, as of Apr 25, 2026).

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