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MANIFOLD
How fast will the TDF 2025 climb Hautacam?
11
Ṁ500Ṁ860
resolved Jul 17
Resolved
YES
36:35 or faster (Jonas Vingegaard 2022)
Resolved
YES
36:00 or faster
Resolved
NO
34:38 or faster (Bjarne Riis 1996)
Resolved
NO
34:00 or faster
Resolved
YES
35:19 or faster (Luc Leblanc 1994)

In the Tour de France 2024, Tadej Pogacar showed a historic performance on Plateau de Beille, crushing a long-standing record time on the climb by minutes. I am interested in if a similar phenomenon will occur on the Hautacam climb this year. The Hautacam climb has a very strong record time set by Bjarne Riis in 1996, who later admitted to illegal use of EPO during that Tour.

I will resolve as best as I can to credible reporting of the fastest rider's Hautacam KOM segment time, or via manual timing from the KOM start to the finish banner if I am unable to find a credible source or there is disagreement on the time in question.

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My unofficial, manual time for Tadej was 35:21 which is very close to the Luc Leblanc time, so I’ll resolve the other four now and wait for more information to finish the resolution.

REVENGE 🔪

My strategy in this market was just to buy Yes in everything.

@traders Peloton is on the Col du Soulor and market closes in just under an hour, get your final bets in if you’ve got them!

@RedzoneITG The ghost of Remco will return and zoom it.

So what was remarkable about Vingegaard 2022 was not so much the time as how he and van Aert crushed Pogacar?

@MachiNi Visma may set a brutal pace for the peloton and send one of their lieutenants to the front to launch Vingegaard. This might be enough for KOM if Pogacar responds. But if Pogacar attacks and they can’t follow he may not need to go fast enough for a KOM. Or maybe he’ll just go for it. So hard to predict. Should be an awesome stage.

@MachiNi My guess is that we aren’t going to see an all-out leadout a la Plateau de Beille, because UAE don’t have the personnel, Visma won’t want to sacrifice Jorgenson so early, and the stage is not the hardest in the Tour so Visma may opt to save their bullets for stages with more elevation. Who knows for sure though, we’ll see!

@RedzoneITG do you know that the referenced times both use the same timed segment? Is this tied to a Strava segment or some points on the road?