Will I complete the Ultra Trail de Mont Blanc before 2027?
4
52
แน€110
2027
61%
chance

To resolve yes, I have to finish the full distance of the main UTMB race (171km) within the cutoff time. I will only bet YES on this market.

Strava: https://www.strava.com/athletes/28216169

Get แน€600 play money
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predicts YES

Update: I didn't get a place in the lottery, but UTMB are now letting entrants pay for places with charity donations (at a cost of $2k+ this year). I'm not going to purchase a charity bib this year, but if I were to fail in the lottery the next two years, I might consider it.

I want to bet YES to believe in you but I think the correct (Manifold) way would be to bet NO to create some payoff for you when you do it.

predicts YES

@howtodowtle you should bet in line with whatever you think is an accurate probability - don't worry about my feelings! If a lot of people bet NO it'll fuel me to prove them wrong, and if they vote YES then I'll feel supported, I win either way :)

๐Ÿ™Œ
Does this have to be as part of the official race? Or does a self-organized run count as well? How much of a priority is this for you, i.e., will you do the qualifying races to try to get into UTMB?

predicts YES

@howtodowtle This has to be part of the official race. This is one of my biggest priorities in life right now, probably the largest outside of my career and maintaining my romantic relationship. I ran the Eiger Ultra Trail in July and got 3 UTMB running stones, and I'm signed up for the 50k version of Ultra Trail Snowdonia in May and Andorra Trail 100 in June, so I ought to have at least another 6 stones by the end of 2023, if all goes to plan.