Pidcock can't even win if he's first over the line 🔥 . Don't know why he should be over 10 percent.

If he won in a Tokyo Olympic way, that would be so funny. Chances are never zero

I have an important question, can Wout win this!?

@Eliza I feel like I’ve got a way different read on this race compared to other traders; this course looks like it’s going to play out more like a Liege-Bastogne-Liege than a Tour of Flanders to me

@Eliza His chances would be way higher with a different nationality. I think in this dynamic, he relies on luck to be in the right group at the right time and Remco not going solo/with so else, etc. Possible, but not likely.

@RedzoneITG It's not as hard as LBL, we're talking about 1.6 km at 7.75% with no spikes (max 10%), no Wallonian asphalt and a circuit. The famous côtes from LBL are 11% average with 20% spikes. Flanders is different because of the cobbles.

I don't know the WC course that well and how these corners will be designed, but I could imagine it being a little bit of a criterium like Glasgow, which might benefit Wout a little bit.

Y'all sleeping on Other.

@Eliza I think it’s pretty rare for the men’s WC to be won by an outsider. Usually some favorite or other has the team to make the race hard and control it to benefit them. I’d argue the last real outsider victory was Pedersen in 2019, in miserable weather conditions, and before that you probably have to go back to Costa in 2013 or maybe Kwiatkowski in 2014.

If anyone wants to argue that I’ve left a favorite out of the market, then add them! It’s only 100 mana :)

@RedzoneITG I think there is an argument that the presumed absence of Pogacar changes the race dynamics in a real way, which could result in weird stuff this year.

He's been present at most of the critical races for the last several years and not being there will be surely noticed.