At the moment there are a ton of "questions" being asked if "this market will reach X traders by X date" or something like "will some arbitrary number associated with this market hit 0 at close".
These low effort questions clog the site and lower the quality on average. It's mostly as a way to get free trader bonuses from participation. I believe under certain conditions those markets will be set to private. At the moment it seems application is inconsistent and the markets are everywhere.
This will resolve yes if two conditions are met.
1. Manifold acknowledges the issue via a notification/email/blog post and adds a site wide rule
2. The rule needs to be enforced for at least 1 week.
I consider enforcement to be actively removing/delisting the markets, encouraging self report tools, and generally removing those threads from the main portion of the site, the feed. This will be ultimately my gut feeling on if I'm satisfied with the level of enforcement (more than lip service).
This will resolve no if there is no indication of rules put in place OR a lack of enforcement by Dec 31. 2359 2023.
Clarification on 28 June: if the "crackdown" rule doesn't seem to significantly impact things or be generally ineffective, this will not resolve yes. Enforcing a half measure for a week will not satisfy a yes resolution. If the change or enforcement doesn't seem to reduce/remove/quarantine/move to another section of the site, then the market remains open until EOY 2023.
Related questions
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน270 | |
| 2 | แน122 | |
| 3 | แน82 | |
| 4 | แน52 | |
| 5 | แน43 |
Good day everyone,
Without contrary evidence and a general feeling of the market being satisfied, I am happy to resolve this yes.
Thank you manifold staff for supporting this. Allowing the markets to continue to exist while improving my browsing experience seems like the best way forward.
Cheers!
Alright, I've seen one nonpredictive market since the weekend began, and it was appropriately tagged. I'm going to start the approx 1 week clock for continued monitoring. If there are no betters, this is the time to collect evidence that the issue is still pervasive.
At the moment the market is going to resolve yes unless I see proper evidence the problem is continuing. If I am doubting the situation then I may pause resolution or allow the market to continue.
Either way, at the moment my manifold experience has improved :)
I haven't seen a glut of the nonpredictive markets in my feed today. I'll keep checking throughout the weekend but it does seem like there has been an active reduction. If other users are having a similar or different experience please let me know.
Otherwise if it passes the sniff check in a few days, I'll start the one week clock. I'm not starting it yet because I have been less active and don't have a larger sample size yet.
@Rederth I still haven't seen them clogging the feed anymore. Does anyone have a different experience?
@Rederth I noticed a fall in nonpredictive markets too, I wonder if this is because Manifold actively moderating or people just genuinely got tired of those markets. Even gigacasting hasnt been making any self-referential markets for a while now.
@SavioMak I think because the incentive structure was taken away, especially for creation and leader boards, it makes it less attractive. Plus I think they have a bot trying to find nonpredictive markets and tagging them so they don't filter into the feed. It's working better than I thought.
I've added a clarification for the resolution of the market. The tl;dr is I need to believe the solution is an actual crackdown to reduce or solve the problem. This does not mean completely removing them from the website/app, but can take many forms.
I believe yesterday they have reduced the incentive structure for the creation of those markets, which may contribute towards a resolution. If the solution ends up being low impact, is easily sidestepped, or not enforced then the market must stay open.
@Rederth It especially targets the โlow effortโ ones because their titles will be recognized by the ai embeddings and will be autoadded to the group
@ian so by default those types of markets arent being filtered out and its up to the user to weed them out with the dislike button?
@Rederth That's true superficially, but removing the trader bonsues and auto-added liquidity should seriously disincentivize their multitudes.
@ian how does the removal of trader bonuses and auto liquidity work? Is it a selection during market creation or does it happen automatically?
What happens to markets that slip through and are manually flipped over by trusted users or administrators? Do the bonuses and the liquidity get removed?
@Rederth Happens automatically to markets in the nonpredictive group. If they slip through the bonuses aren't removed retroactively, but they do get removed once added.
@ian I guess I'll give it a few days and see if things change. Still markets that meet my description that are publicly listed and appear thriving. Maybe they will die off as they resolve. At the moment I can't start the clock on condition 2.
@Rederth Which ones? We just intro'd the feature yesterday so not all markets are properly tagged
@ian they still show up in my feed, although one was tagged as nonpredictive which should hopefully assist condtion 2. I'll be checking periodically as I use the app for a noticeable change.
I think for reporting the offending markets I'm going to abstain both so I can get a clearer picture, and because I don't want to personally contribute towards the resolution of this market outside of its creation and my whining on discord :)
As I've said before, it's probably going to take a bit for the nonpredictive markets to weed themselves out with the incentive structure weakened.