Resolves "Yes" if deprogrammingsocks makes a post informing a decision to transition from male to female. (EG: Jokes about treatments, pronouns, a changing gender identity, et cetera.) Resolves "No" if by the end of 2025 deprogrammingsocks has a testosterone level above 150 ng/dL.
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@deprogrammingsocks The west has fallen. I think since I didn't specify your @ on twitter, just your handle (mistakenly with @) but you as a "user" your other account should still work?
Other holders, please give your opinions on whether this should be resolved NA or if we should still wait and see. I'm team wait-and-see because there is continuity between each account and it is the same person at the end of the day.
honestly suprised nobody mentioned the market in response to this 𝕏eet
https://x.com/deprogramsocks/status/1825229676496736704
only betting one today socky saw a chris chan video today which while i still think he will transition it will definitely add another day or two from when he would without seeing it
Are you even going to make any money from that? I can't imagine you getting any profit above the fees. My money says before the end of this year honestly.
it says i will make 500 profit overall considering i sold it and bought it back before thats pretty alright but its lore about the joke more then anything also i think its a sure thing just a matter of who long he denies it and tries to come up with excuses to hyper focus on other things in his life
literally at this point just print out the process at a place near him to start hrt and were to call to make a appointment and hand that to him
I baleeted it because I was taking calc II over the summer. My final is tomorrow so after that I'll undelete
Should've added this sooner, but Sockie's profile is now no longer Lain-themed, but themed after the blue-haired girl from Bocchi the rock. This might be important information and help your predictions.
withdrew some because having all my eggs in one basket is bad plus socks is been transphobic which might inspire confidence in some of you but mostly because i found a market that will give a stupidly high return lol
@ii okay so like i am a very ugly troon and i showed corvid my facedoxx so i assumed that would stop them from trooning out so i sold all my shares and put it all on no but then corvid put 55 on yes so like obviously that means it’s basically decided so i moved it all to yes but it basically just meant i lost almost everything since selling gives you nowhere near what you put in
@megacoolness anyways since basically i was the main holder before i lost it all by selling and swapping i brought the probability down because i owned 90% of shares
@megacoolness I don't think that means it's decided.
Corvid gave me a strong argument that this doesn't fit the resolve condition, which is correct.
Corvid/socks has not gone through with anything, or at least not publicly stated so.
Predictive markets are most accurate when many people close to an issue are able to weigh in, and who could be closer than the potential trooner ximself?
Corvid's position is naturally factored into market probability (Nota Bene, only bought M25 worth of “Yes” during the dip). I don't see the outcome changing based on wanting to win/lose at manifold. Perhaps 56% is accurate and truly is the likelihood of transition.
(It might be considered manipulative to try and cause a run on "Yes" in order to sell the shares at a higher price, maybe that should be discussed?)
@megacoolness i was mostly joking about it been decided and like i really dont care about losing any i only bought no in order to self loath also like i literally have no idea how these markets work