Given the overwhelming support PalWorld is receiving, will this new type of game in their genre threaten The Pokémon Company and force them to make more polished games? This is without thinking about whether Nintendo will try to pursue legal action, as regardless of that decision, this new take on the formula has proven a success. Resolved with results of https://manifold.markets/pkpr/will-palworld-be-dead-in-2-weeks?r=UmF5c29ucmllcw
Plus measuring social media impressions, sales metrics, etc. over the course of the following 2 weeks. If conversation for the game as dropped and stagnated by then, or the game has sold enough copies to justify otherwise, the question will be resolved with “No”
Edit: I resolved the question based on the following facts
Pokemon Scarlet and Violet had sold 23.23 million copies in November 2023, one year after its release
PalWorld had sold* 19 million copies in just 12 days after its launch on January 19 *(12 million on steam, 7 million on Xbox. As the game is free on game-pass, accurate sales are difficult to determine)
PalWorld has the second highest consecutive player count of all time on steam, at 2,101,535 all time peak, surpassing CSGO2, but below PubG
A talent agency in Japan, Tokyo Sports, asked their talent to not discuss PalWorld in order to avoid offending The Pokemon Company in consideration to future collaborations
Given this, I believe my threshold of healthy competition has been met. While the active player count cannot compare to the first couple of weeks, the game is maintaining a steady player count each day. The future of PalWorld looks promising, and while Pokemon will most likely continue to reign as kings in this genre, they’re definitely getting a run for their money.
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@bohaska The only news I can find is that a Pokémon presents was announced today, I can’t really find anything concrete https://x.com/pokemon/status/1759850669333160265?s=46&t=_S3bdsPyPZhnKZAMWicjPA
@Raysonries Those terms hardly constitute forcing Nintendo to innovate. It seems highly speculative.
@Raysonries The description seems to be mainly about "Palworld is competing against Nintendo and winning", but it doesn't answer the question of "Nintendo will make changes to Pokémon as a response to that", which was the original question in the first place.
@Noit Right. I also think this market makes an assumption that Palworld being successful will cause Pokémon to become more innovative. Even if Pokémon does get more innovative, it will be hard to prove that Palworld was responsible.
@nottelling2ccc lets say the success of palworld reduces the innovation in pokemon by half
0.5×0 = 0
@PaintspotInfez I realized I hadn’t properly explained anything about the resolution. I hope the new resolve description provides a satisfactory, concrete description for my criteria for “forcing innovation” by way of healthy competition