When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?
When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?
15
1kṀ423
2040
2053
expected

Can be any US court at any circuit or layer of appeals. Resolves immediately on the ruling, even if that ruling is later overturned.

Dec 27, 8:28pm: The intention is for the phrase “legally a person” to capture any kind of legal personhood, including both natural and juridical persons (i.e. corporations).

In the event that the resolution is unclear due to the creation of some new category for “AI persons” with only some of the rights of other legal persons, then the resolution will depend on our judgement on whether they have the majority of rights of other legal persons (e.g. enter into contracts, sue, be sued, own property, etc).

Dec 27, 6:37pm: When will a US court first rule that an AI is a person? → When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Technology
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will an AI be granted the same level of personhood as a corporation in the US by end of 2025?
10% chance
Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?
34% chance
Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Which country will be the first to grant personhood or some form of legal rights to an AI or other digital intelligence?
Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?
22% chance
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
36% chance
Will a US court rule that AI-generated content can be a copyright violation before 2025?
61% chance
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2038?
35% chance
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?
49% chance
Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?
38% chance


Sort by:
2y

Related market:

2y

Deja vu central, I swear I've seen this market before but I can't find it...

2y

Can you clarify your definition of a "person?" IE, the same amount of "personhood" that I have, or the same amount of "personhood" an LLC or C corporation has?

2y

@LarsDoucet The intention is for the phrase “legally a person” to capture any kind of legal personhood, including both natural and juridical persons (i.e. corporations).

In the event that the resolution is unclear due to the creation of some new category for “AI persons” with only some of the rights of other legal persons, then the resolution will depend on our judgement on whether they have the majority of rights of other legal persons (e.g. enter into contracts, sue, be sued, own property, etc).

2y

I think this would very likely happen within 10 years of AGI, if the US court still exists at that time.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

Will an AI be granted the same level of personhood as a corporation in the US by end of 2025?
10% chance
Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?
34% chance
Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Which country will be the first to grant personhood or some form of legal rights to an AI or other digital intelligence?
Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?
22% chance
Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?
36% chance
Will a US court rule that AI-generated content can be a copyright violation before 2025?
61% chance
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2038?
35% chance
Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?
49% chance
Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?
38% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy