Will @RanaG be promoted to Platinum by the end of March 2024 season?
resolved Apr 2

@RanaG started on Manifold around 9 Feb 2024. She has topped the Bronze league by a large margin and was promoted to Gold for March.

Her current position in the Gold league is #2.

Will she be promoted to Platinum by the end of the March league?

I will not participate in this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Here is the status as we count down 10 days to season end.

I'm maintaining #1 at Gold with a 17% margin to my next competitor and 800% margin to the bottom of the promotion list.

In three weeks I have made 3k and I'm getting closer to my Feb performance of making 3.8k


We are half way through the season and I have a clear lead

@traders earnings warning:

I currently stand at the lead of my Gold league, but...

I'm unfortunately heavily invested in the Israel Hamas markets with a large position for a ceasefire before Ramadan.

If there is no deal then I stand to lose around 1k, wiping out my leading position in the League.

bought Ṁ69 YES from 91% to 92%

@RanaG Most of those losses are already priced into your league position!

bought Ṁ69 YES from 92% to 93%

@traders After some big wins yesterday, I attenuated a big chunk of the risk. My earnings are mostly out of the deep water. Even with a 1k negative shock now from no ceasefire, I can remain in the league.

bought Ṁ69 YES from 91% to 92%

@TonyPepperoni I think the probability is much less than 95% lol

@RanaG I disagree :) platinum isn’t that hard to get into and you’re doing all the right things.

The income from this market has pushed me to #1 in the Gold league