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MANIFOLD
Chess Who will win the 2026 FIDE WOMEN'S Candidates Tournament?
20
Ṁ200Ṁ3.2k
Apr 30
31%
Zhu Jiner
25%
Vaishali Rameshbabu
13%
Kateryna Lagno
11%
Aleksandra Goryachkina
10%
Divya Deshmukh
6%
Tan Zhongyi
4%
Bibisara Assaubayeva

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Candidates_Tournament_2026

  • Update 2026-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Anna Muzychuk has qualified as a new participant but the creator has not yet found a satisfactory way to add her as a market option. The creator is considering options but no resolution has been made on how to handle her inclusion.

  • Update 2026-03-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering renaming the Humpy option (who has withdrawn) to Anna Muzychuk as a way to add her as a participant, and is seeking consent from users with positions on that option.

  • Update 2026-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has decided not to rename the Humpy option to Anna Muzychuk, leaving the market options as-is. This means Anna Muzychuk will not be added as a separate option.

  • Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anna Muzychuk wins the tournament, the market will resolve N/A.

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@Ram_N you need to make a decision on this market ASAP. The tournament has begun and it's not great to have unclear resolution criteria while people are actively trading.

@bens I've already said what I will do. If Anna M wins, the market will be resolved as N/A.

Market that includes Muzychuk (and a bit more liquidity)

@archvenison At this moment we have an almost perfect relation between both questions. WIth Anna M 14% included all are a tick shorter

bought Ṁ10 YES

@rayman2000 @Qq @harfe I am considering renaming Humpy (who's withdrawn) to be Anna Muzychuk. You have a position. Would you be okay with the switch?

@Ram_N I mean, I have a Yes position, so I can only profit from this switch. So a clear yes from me :P

@Ram_N It seems like the sticking point is @harfe, who seems (quite reasonably) bought No on Humpy when she dropped out

@archvenison Since the volume is quite small (1.5K spread over 12 traders) and the there hasn’t really been much movement yet, I think a N/A would be fine

@archvenison renaming or n/a just in case Anna M is winning also an option

@Tantalost I think n/an only if Muzychuk wins is probably worse than n/a now, because by that point there world be much more profit and loss to unwind.

I guess is @Ram_N was very explicit that that was the plan it would be ok, and we could just make a separate market for those of us who don’t want to trade on market with a decent chance of being n/aed

@archvenison I’d prefer a clean resolution with a valid winner (e.g. mapping the replacement), since the market has already seen meaningful trading and price discovery — I’ve also put in additional capital based on that and have some EV here, without even being short on Humpy.

N/A is understandable as a fallback if no clean solution is possible, but it should be second-best rather than the default.

@archvenison Yes, since @harfe bought a NO on Humpy, I will let things be.

@Ram_N Just to clarify, you intent to N/A if Muzychuk wins?

@archvenison Yes, that's realistically the only "valid" option given how this market is structured.

@Ram_N Do you want to create another market, or should I?

@archvenison Please go ahead and create!

Thanks

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Ram_N new runner?

@Tantalost There is no easy way for me to add Anna M into the mix. Both the choices are unsatisfactory:
1. I could rename Humpy's slot to be Anna M. But that will mess up the people who've already placed bets on her.
2. I could close this whole market and duplicate it, but that will be disruptive to so many traders.

I am open to suggestions. (This happened becuase I didn't leave the "Other' option on. Lesson learned!)

@Ram_N
Yes both sound unsatisfactory. And now after the news I had shortened her by myself :) What about doing nothing and if Muchyzuk wins there are at least 7 No

@Tantalost Yes, that is what I'm leaning towards at the moment. I will see if there are any other suggestions.

sold Ṁ130 NO

@Ram_N
.. but the market needs a winner and that would mean she is her for Yes. Sold the position again now.

1. would be ok now for me

bought Ṁ3 YES

@Ram_N
= I closed the position and it went up again to 5%
5% as a starting point for Anna M (renamed or not) ok?! For me it should be a tick more maybe but it is more or less iin line (I will wait now anyway)