1
Will Deemind release something innovative by the end of 2023?
25
closes Dec 31
77%
chance

Deepmind has released innovative AIs in the previous years, such as AlphaZero, AlphaFold, etc.. Will Deepmind release something equally innovative by the end of 2023? E.g. Gato2, a GPT-5 level language model, or something else?

Sort by:
jonsimon avatar
Jon Simon

Typo in the title, "Deepmind" not "Deemind"

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima

Hmm Gato-2, GPT-5 don't seem as innovative as AlphaZero, AlphaFold.

Related markets

Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2023?21%
Will the Unstable Diffusion team actually deliver their product as described before the end of 2023?49%
Will Grimes release a full length album in 2023?79%
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?61%
Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?51%
Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?38%
Will Will Smith by the end of 2023?4%
Will there be a renewed pace of VC investment by end of 2023?53%
Will Dermot Kennedy release a studio album in 2023 or 2024?60%
Will Kanye West release a new album in 2023?34%
Will I die in 2023?21%
What alignment proposals and research directions will I be excited about by the end of 2023?
Will Hifiman release a new headphone in 2023?66%
Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2023?48%
Will I publish one relevant paper by the end of 2023?43%
Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?64%
Will Adele release a studio album in 2023 or 2024?28%
New Eminem album in 2023?55%
Will The Longest Johns release a new album in 2023?38%
Will John Carmack seriously engage with the alignment community by the end of 2023?21%