What percent of 100M people will die from H5N1 by end of 2025?
Basic
18
1.3k
2026
3%
chance

This question resolves to [(the total number of people who have died from H5N1 worldwide between market open and Dec. 31, 2025, inclusive) ÷ (100 million)]. If the number of deaths is greater than 100 million, it resolves to 100%.

I will do my best to resolve to the most reliable source, or an average thereof weighted by my best guess. I will not trade in this market.

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Worldwide or in the US?

@Odoacre Worldwide

@Radicalia looks it's a yes/no market, how exactly will it work at resolve time?

@Odoacre It resolves to the probability as specified in the description :-)

@Odoacre So, for example, if 75M people die, it will resolve to 75%.

@Radicalia is 75% yes or no?

@Odoacre 75% yes.

@Odoacre Binary markets are not truly binary, they can also resolve “PROB” (to a probability, with weighted payouts) and “N/A”.

@yaboi69 Thanks for explaining. So if you had 100 shares of yes and the market was resolved to 75% you'd get 75M ? And similarly if you had 100 NO you'd get 25M back ?

predicts NO

@Odoacre Yeah, I think that’s right.