Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES when OpenAI Codex CLI reaches version 1.0 or higher, as confirmed by the GitHub releases (https://github.com/openai/codex/releases). The current version is 0.77.0. Resolution occurs on the date the version number is officially published and available for download. Timezone EST.

I'm assuming it'll happen in 2026, but will resolve to December 2026 if it doesn't happen in 2026

Background

Codex CLI is a coding agent from OpenAI that runs locally on your computer. New versions of the Codex CLI are released regularly, with the tool currently in the 0.x version range. The project is actively maintained with frequent updates addressing stability, features, and user experience improvements.

Considerations

Semantic versioning conventions suggest that a 1.0 release typically indicates API stability and production-readiness. OpenAI may choose to skip directly to higher version numbers or adopt alternative versioning schemes, which could affect when this milestone is reached. Additionally, the rapid release cadence (multiple releases per month) means the timeline to 1.0 is uncertain.