Manifest might be happening this year in June or July:
When will a member of the public be able to purchase a ticket to attend?
So not pre-release, or limited to certain individuals, but somewhere publically listed, eg. manifest.is
"Early-bird" or similar counts, so long as there are no restrictions on who can purchase
Timezone will be San Francisco local time
Resolves N/A if there is no Manifest in June/July 2026
Resolves 100% to the time period when the criteria is met, all other time period will resolve to 0%
Eg.
If tickets are made available on 2nd April, the "Apr 1-15" option will resolve 100%, and all others 0%
1,000@traders I just bought my ticket today, 16th March, from less.online
However, I believe that the site was actually up and available to purchase tickets from 13th March
My reason for believing so is:
- March 4-6 — The earliest Cloudinary image uploads specific to the new site's content (hero images, venue photos, ticket graphics) were uploaded March 4-6:
- typetown_good_bloom_festival_filtered.jpg — Mar 4
- typetown_lighthaven_filled_in_2a.jpg — Mar 4
- tickets_now_printing_press_queue.jpg — Mar 5
- lighthaven-real.jpg — Mar 6
- March 13 — The CNAME was deleted from the public GitHub repo, fully cutting it over to Vercel
- March 11-12 — More assets still being added (typetown_lamp_2.jpg, supply-demand-equilibrium.svg)
- Today (March 16) — The Vercel deployment ID changed between our two requests, meaning they're still actively deploying
This GitHub commit right here:
https://github.com/LessWrong2/LessOnline/commit/9ad3e7e80a9f1846e8695d77554e9f6517d4245b
Is my strongest evidence, they stopped the less.online domain pointing to the old site on 13th March, I expect they did a straight cutover to the new site
Does anyone have reason to believe that the new site was not live until the 16th?