When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven?
3
1.3kṀ629
2030
March 24, 2027
3%
Q4 2025
8%
Q1 2026
8%
Q2 2026
8%
Q3 2026
10%
Q4 2026
12%
Q1 2027
10%
Q2 2027
8%
Q3 2027
8%
Q4 2027
8%
Q1 2028
8%
Q2 2028
8%
Q3 2028

I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES when anyone (public release, not a closed beta) can book and complete a fully driverless Waymo ride from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to Lighthaven, located in Berkeley, CA. Resolution requires:

  1. Waymo offering fully autonomous service (no safety driver) at SFO for passenger pickups

  2. Waymo's service area extending to Lighthaven in Berkeley

  3. Ability for anyone to request and complete a ride from SFO to Berkeley (going in the reverse direction does not matter for this market)

San Francisco International Airport is not yet part of Waymo's Bay Area service area, though Waymo has received a pilot permit allowing for commercial operations at SFO, with operations beginning in phases starting with employee testing ahead of welcoming Bay Area riders, with pickups and dropoffs initially at SFO's Kiss & Fly area. Testing has begun with human drivers at the wheel at SFO, but we don't yet know when users will be able to order rides from San Francisco to SFO.

Background

Waymo's Bay Area service area currently stretches from San Francisco to San José, and Waymo has started running fully driverless robotaxis on freeways in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix with no human backup inside, with the service available 24/7 to selected riders who've opted in to their new features. Lighthaven is a campus in Berkeley, CA run by Lightcone Infrastructure, dedicated to hosting events and programs that help people think better and improve humanity's long-term trajectory.

Considerations

Berkeley is approximately 10-15 miles north of SFO. While Waymo operates in San Francisco and has expanded southward to San José, northward expansion to Berkeley has not been announced. The route would require Waymo to expand its service area beyond its current Bay Area footprint and obtain necessary regulatory approvals for Berkeley operations.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy