MANIFOLD
Will the "famous person" market resolve within 48 hours of this market opening?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ1.5k
Feb 20
11%
chance

This market resolves YES if the linked market resolves (presumably to YES) before this market closes in 48 hours. Otherwise, resolves NO.


/ItsMe/will-a-famous-person-bet-on-this-ma-s6hE6Ih5Lt

Note: This market resolves based on if that market resolves during this market, not on if a famous person trades on it.

If the state of the world creates a descrepency between the market title and the description, the description overrides the title. 8:03:59pm EST counts. 8:04:00pm EST does not.

I can trade on this market.

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I think a market with a bunch of date ranges could be good. Interesting to see what the distribution would be

@CrypticQccZ That is a good idea. I'll fire one up after this market resolves unless somebody beats me to the punch.

boughtṀ100YES

@CrypticQccZ Holy hell you terrify me.

bought Ṁ100 YES

I think this is pretty likely. The longer the market stays at the top of manifold the more likely it is

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 35% order

@CrypticQccZ I added some more No orders at 25% and 35% if you’re interested

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 16% order

25 might be too high tbh. Someone might wait until the end. I'll do size at 17

@CrypticQccZ 16*

filled a Ṁ200 NO at 15% order

@CrypticQccZ thanks for putting it up. I agree that that’s a more reasonable probability

opened a Ṁ7,500 YES at 20% order

@LoganTurner put some up at 20 too

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