@Bayesian failed to "double it and pass it on". But, per the rules...
Shame upon the Manifolder who breaks the chain. That, or shame may be brought upon the Manifolder who sends their managram payload to an inactive or distrustful user.
Bet on the results here:
Dashboards:
@johnNZOy your goated! now comment on the bounty https://manifold.markets/121/6-7-bounty-for-double-it-and-pass-i-ISLqtpU9ZC so I can give you the mana
@traders Oops. Closing dates were not set up properly at first. The intent was to close on the 23rd at 9pm EST.
The prediction market was correct, the poll wasn't.
@121 The following is strictly my thoughts on how I want to cast my vote, not the outcome of the markets.
I am currently convinced Bayesian bears more shame on account of his premeditated intentions to not double it at all while in talks with you during the live game.
My read on the situation was that he was not aware of how the post-game shaming process would play out. I'm convinced that he believed your intention to take all the shame was credible (even though it was actually unenforcible), and it therefore reads as more shameful to make somebody else the fall guy for his actions.
My current intention is to cast my vote on Bayesian and forgo 67 mana in favor of my conscience.
Going once... Going twice...
I think I've gotta vote epistemically here and reject the bounty.
Vengeance/sin can be cast upon a substitute, but shame is not the same. I would say that Christians do not shame Jesus for taking up the cross. Similarly, 121 cannot bear the shame of Bayesian, especially since it seems like Bayesian has withdrawn his consent for it to be taken from him.
It is for these reasons that I cast my vote on Bayesian. Locked in.
My read on the situation was that he was not aware of how the post-game shaming process would play out
That is correct. I wanted to ensure that he would pass on the chain and I wanted to ensure that I would be part of the chain in some kind of profitable way. Alas, through our negotiations, we ended up splitting the spoils of his "chain step" (32000M) between the two of us (plus market liquidity, total ~20,000 mana each), and 20,000 mana profit wasn't much when it came to profitably coming up with 128,000 mana. His shame clause was a mere afterthought.
@Bayesian this comment above made the comment count go from 33 to 34 and you know what the sum of those 2 numbers are.
