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MANIFOLD
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Ṁ100Ṁ945
resolved May 4
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@Stralor Alright, where do you want to begin?

@100Anonymous If you'd like to join in on the fun, here's where the cool kids are.

@Quroe I've ranked the market on the toggle, both tags are still applied

@Stralor looks like 1 tag (links to unranked) is publicly accessible and the other (links to nonpredictive) can't be added manually by nonmods and is what is used when the toggle is added?

bought Ṁ894 YES

@Stralor I've bet and will check my leagues after the cache refreshes in a few

@Quroe I did my own test marking it, which you can see on my questions page, and it's clear that only when the AI adds the unranked tag will it actually unrank.

@100Anonymous yeah the AI adds the nonpredictive variant

@100Anonymous Yeah, that seems to be my read on the situation too.

@Stralor wait wtf did the tag disappear??? I didn't remove it and it usually is oddly sticky after the toggle is flipped back to ranked

bought Ṁ25 NO

@Stralor no, I added the non-predictive tag first, and then it added unranked

@Stralor I didn't do it!

@Quroe okay in its current state it's showing up in leagues. lemme play around a sec...

@100Anonymous Wait, you can add topic tags to my market?

sold Ṁ25 NO

@Quroe I am talking about my separate test market.

@100Anonymous Okay, that sounds closer to my mental model of how this all works.

@Quroe fascinating! okay it really is completely tied to the tag

removing the tag flips the toggle back, flipping the toggle adds AND removes the tag (I never noticed because I never hit refresh before)

@Stralor I see, and the non-predictive tag is the real unranked tag. When I add non-predictive, the AI also makes it unrank.

@Stralor Okay! Interesting!

@100Anonymous Wait, so you mean to tell me you have a way to force a market to unrank as a non-mod?

@Stralor this is the "real" tag: https://manifold.markets/topic/nonpredictive

as you can see it's a "curated topic" which means no one can manually add it unless they're the owner of it. I can remove it fine, but I can't add it by hand even as a mod! let's test if you can remove it, one sec

@Stralor Standing by for your order...

@Quroe do it

@Stralor Removed.

That doesn't match my expectations. We're still unranked.

@Stralor yes, but if you remove it, nothing happens unless you remove the other unranked tag, apparently. Also, if you add tags before you add "Non Predictive," it glitches out and doesn't make it unranked.

@Quroe you removed the other unranked

can you touch the nonpredictive one?

@Stralor Did you add the One True Ring Unranked tag?

@Quroe yes. it's always the one at the end

@Stralor I can touch non-predictive, but it doesn't change anything apparently.

@Stralor Oh! Got it.

Okay, yes, removed now. We're ranked again.

@Quroe wiiiild

@Stralor non-predictive tag, when removed, does not make the market re-ranked for some reason.

@Stralor So! Here's the philosophical question now:

Do you want normal users to be able to do this? Do you want to let them keep the power to re-rank? Do you want to give them the power to unrank?

@100Anonymous

he did it

@Quroe anything else we want to test? if not I think we should keep this dark magic secret. I'm going to unlist this shortly

@Quroe I think yes, it makes it much easier to make whale bait markets if somebody forgets about unranked. But about re-ranking, I would argue no.

@Stralor Agreed. Wait. Hold up. One more test on that subject!

@Stralor what do you mean? He ranked it once, but he couldn't toggle the rank back.

@100Anonymous 💯 I think the ideal world lets creators unrank it themselves but need a mod to rerank

Unlisting unranks, correct?

@Stralor correct.

@100Anonymous no he really did toggle it to ranked from unranked

@Quroe yes, of course.

@Quroe yes

@Quroe oooohh I see where you're going with this let's try

@Stralor he toggled it from ranked to unranked by removing the real unranked tag that is added after non-predictive profits is added.

Does un-unlisting force re-rank?

Let's science! Unlisting...

@Quroe yes but only if the unranked tag is not added, I believe.

@Quroe okay I just hit the switches a bazillion times. it remembers the last state of ranked/unranked

@Stralor Now I'm going to relist and see if it re-ranks.

@Stralor Oh! Interesting! I cannot override a mod-unlist!

@Quroe ... I don't believe you can relist something that a mod unlisted

@Quroe yeah

@Quroe my question is: can you rerank it while it's unlisted? (super secret forbidden magic)

@Stralor Can you undo that? I want to see if list/unlist has buggy behavior.

@Stralor Can we test both?

@Quroe relisted

@Quroe sure

@Stralor Which hypothesis first?

@Quroe I think we'll test the re-rank part if it's unlisted, because this would make for very bad shenanigans.

Current state: ranked + listed

@Quroe if the market is unlisted while ranked it doesn't get the tag, so I don't expect shenanigans to work. but let's unrank and then unlist and see what happens

Now non-mod unlisted and unranked.

@Quroe oh shoot I got in the way

@Stralor go again

@Stralor You have relisted. Ranked is back.

No worries, I just want to test ground truth.

Okay, back to listed and ranked.

100% correlation between ranked/unranked with listed/unlisted.

@Stralor Unrank me now.

now unranked

Toggling listed/unlisted in this state stays unranked.

@Quroe yep. now unlist and then see if you can black magic to ranked while unlisted

@Stralor I tested this on my own market. It doesn't seem possible.

@Stralor I did not find any exploits. Works as expected. I can't re-rank while unlisted.

@Quroe looks like you removed the tag? or did it go away after unlisting?

@Stralor Oh, yes, I manually removed it. I thought that's what you meant by trying to re-rank because I have no other method of control over that. Non-mods cannot toggle ranked with a switch like you can.

@Quroe right

@Quroe correct.

@Quroe cool cool. now try relisting and see if it comes back ranked (I expect yes)

@Stralor Your expectation is correct.

@Stralor I'm so amused that unlisted is a proper toggle in the backend but unranked is just a fucking tag lolll

@Stralor Yuuuuup

@Quroe I think both the hypotheses are confirmed to expectations.
@Stralor yeah, I genuinely don't understand why they can't make a toggle.

@Stralor anything else to test? I'm happy here to call it. let's unlist and N/A

@100Anonymous Nononono, that's not how science works. You reject null hypotheses. Not accept hypotheses.

@Quroe confirming to expectations does not mean they are true. Confirming to expectations means the product is working properly.

@Stralor Yup, let's pull the plug. Class dismissed!

@QuroeI will make a write-up on this, and hopefully this bug gets fixed some time soon.

@Stralor Or... Maybe there is one more thing to test. Can you mod-unlist while I'm normal-unlisted?

@100Anonymous yeah uh don't post it publically. let the team know in private maybe?

@Quroe not in one click no lol. I have to relist and unlist again. want me to do it?

@Stralor sure, I'll DM @Gen

@Stralor yeah, try it. See if anything changes.

@Stralor Up to you. I mostly wanted to see if normies could preemptively unlist to avoid a mod-unlist. It seems like we can't, which is probably the correct behavior.

@Stralor Yup, okay, all systems normal, it seems. I can't un-unlist now.

@Quroe anything more we want to test?

@Quroe they can and odds are we wouldn't notice. also we can't fucking see unlisted markets just like normal users. who knows what the blackmarket of manifold looks like

@Stralor moderators can't see unlisted markets? I thought they can, or maybe it's only admins.

@Stralor I've been advocating that at least we should be able to see unlisted markets (marked as unlisted) in users' questions list. sometimes we have to take moderator actions in them and then misplace the links

@100Anonymous only admins

@Stralor I expect this [mods can't see them] to be true too. I have some markets that are unlisted for the lost episode of Nash Pit episode 2, and nobody but me has seen them.

If you guys do come across them, please don't look at them. They're about how many people will view those markets, so looking at them ruins the fun.

@Quroe lol

@Stralor maybe, with admin permission, if people think that mods may abuse that, admins can give permission in special cases.

@Quroe I guess viewer counts for unlisted markets due to moderator/admin action need not be counted.

@100Anonymous I mean at least let me see the markets that I or another mod forcibly unlisted

@Stralor no, if you see a market before it's unlisted, it will still be visible to you.

@100Anonymous I think the whole point of moderator status is that admins trust them.

@Quroe I guess

@100Anonymous incorrect, I believe. you can see them if you traded afaik

@100Anonymous Only because you have some method of getting the link. Unlisted doesn't mean unreachable.

@Quroe yep

@Stralor oh, okay then. I did not notice this because on the few markets that were unlisted after I saw them, I also traded on them.

Any other things for us to test today?

@100Anonymous I once got a series of user reports about bad behavior in a random school election market (in a foreign language). it was unlisted, would have had no idea it existed except someone in the market didn't like what someone said and so I got a direct link which disappeared after I resolved the ticket

@Stralor I was amused and enjoyed a glimpse into the hidden side of manifold

@Stralor if this is happening, then who knows how many other events are happening?

@Stralor God knows how much black market trading is happening. Thankfully, we can see balance logs at least.

@Stralor https://manifold.markets/post/i-need-v-bux-please
Math PsychoFancy is another case I have seen, although I don't know where these markets actually are. (Also, is V-Bucks another type of currency?)

@100Anonymous v-bucks is fortnite money I think? pretty sure that post is just gibberish, I saw no unlisted trades in that user's history from a quick skim of their last year's log

@100Anonymous Oh, you sweet summer child.

@Stralor oh, is it so? I don't really play video games much 😭

@100Anonymous As for what Math PhyschoFancy is, I suspect it's a user-made casino in either Roblox or Discord.

@Quroe makes sense. 100% childlike behavior (not trying to be rude, just saying)

And yes, V-bucks are Fortnite in game currency.

@Quroe already watched that a week ago.

Wow, we got far. Front page!

@Quroe big bets and comments. that's why I thought it important to unlist before the dark magic was shared with bad actors

@Stralor I guess I could have used the new manual feed score settings mods have to kill it from the front page but I didn't even think about it

@Stralor Oh, that's new info for me! I didn't know you all had those powers now!

@Stralor Wait, so we confirmed that a bad actor can always re-rank a market with this testing, right?

@Quroe

yep! they're quite new and quite nifty but I haven't had a reason to use them yet so I rarely remember they exist

@Quroe correct

@Stralor That's such a good power. 🤌

--for the mods, not the bad actors.

@Quroe yeah. it's the kind of power that needs to be wielded very carefully imo. shadowbanning is dangerous! when possible I still prefer admin boosts for visibility + normal unlisting for un-visibility since it's clear to creators that moderator action has occurred. I'm sure there will come a day when I'll need to both uprank and downrank markets with these powers but it hasn't happened yet

@Stralor what's nice about it though is the subtlety of change you can do. boosting and unlisting are very black and white, and being able to juuuust tweak something is very cool

@Stralor May a day never come again when I see a "How many times will I poop" market on the front page.

@Quroe lol

@Stralor God, those markets were fun, but what a bad first impression of Manifold on a new user.

@Quroe oh I'm familiar. I reached out to fedor personally to find a resolution and get confirmation of life lol

@Quroe oh, those cursed markets. I really think these should just be unlisted entirely if a mod spots them. If any new user sees it, they are probably going to be put off by the site entirely.

🤣

@100Anonymous while I agree they're a bit icky I'm sorry to say I'm the (often dissenting) voice on the mod team that argues in favor of dumb shit like that being given full permission to do their thing

@Quroe I just realized I never updated the folks in the october market. fedor did get back to me later! they're alive and well

@100Anonymous I personally think this is one of the cases where down-dooting the market with mod downweight power is the right solution. I think the market is still in the realm of acceptable, just not palatable.