🏅 Top traders

@traders The next round is up!

https://manifold.markets/news/bilt-rent-free-nov-1-2025?r=UXVyb2U

marble racing

Terribly sorry for resolving late! Life events got to me. Here is Q3's answer sheet!

How do I watch the show from outside USA and not using Bilt

@JackP That's a good question. I don't think you can. I think you can watch with a Bilt account even if you don't have a credit card with them. I think you'd just need to VPN in at that point.

(Assuming you even need a VPN in the first place, that is.)

Final call! I have it set to close 30 minutes before showtime!

Liquidity added. This is important price discovery.

Just so I am clear, I am wrong for having a boner for fencers?

@KevinBlaw As far as I can tell, you're allowed to have one leg on each side of the fence here on Manifold if they're into it and consent.

Puns aside, the 12 market answers here are the multiple choices in the actual game show.

Surveyed users were asked the question as seen in the title, and they were given a text field to submit one answer. 3 answers are the true 100% YES resolutions for this market. Everything else is a red herring and will resolve NO.

@KevinBlaw All that to say, fencing didn't make the cut in the survey.

@Gen trying something weird but anyway gl everyone (anti- gymnastics bets too)

@Gen I want to take a guess: you plugged the market into Claude?

@Quroe nah I just thought about it a little and updated my expectations more in line with the format, but it’s vibes and I lose all my trades so maybe this is free mana for someone

@Gen You slaughtered us.

@Quroe I think I actually lost mana here and it’s displaying weird, I’m at -801 according to the profit counter below the market, but the leaderboard puts me in profit

Whoever says they watch volleyball is lying!!

@Gen Huh. Odd. This is what I see (with the 2nd pic being my personal view). Are these data not congruent for you? (118 is basically 119 and is excusable to me as a rounding error on decimal mana.)

@Quroe this is what I see, haven’t verified which is correct but I assume the loss is. Volleyball had a lot of yessers

@Gen Something feels very wrong there, you're right. These two screenshots below seem nonsensical given that volleyball YES'd. Want me to file a bug report on Discord? Or do you have it handled yourself as an actual Manifold staff?

@Quroe I’m sure I could do a proper audit of the trades and figure it out, but I’m busy atm with many other things

Also not currently working as manifold staff (sadly)

Big report would be awesome. I’ll take a proper look when I have more time but if you log it there someone else might already know the answers

@Gen Bug report if you manage to want to weigh in: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1423179789828882533

So who are these attractive F1 racers / crew?

@Quroe Toto

@Gen Okay, I can see it.

@Quroe In any of these cases, I would say that no individual person needs to be "objectively visually attractive" in some traditional sense -- just the concept or idea of "sportsperson who participates in this sport seems attractive" is probably enough for most people. Just 1 or even 0 direct examples are probably sufficient.

@Eliza I agree. I'm just caught unaware by the previously high odds represented by F1 since most of the drivers have a helmet and full body suit on most of the time.

@Quroe I think you can dominate in this market by just spot checking each of these by directly asking 5 people in the app's target cohort (and possibly correct orientation...) "Do you think [F1 drivers] are attractive?" (they don't need to actually follow the sport!)

@Eliza Y'all are welcome to exercise that strategy. I locked in my answers for the game before even making these markets; I am just curious if the wisdom of the crowds can crack this game.

(Also, nailing a successful referral would be a nice use of my mana. I don't think you actually need to apply for or have the credit card to play the game proper -- I think you just need the account.)

As we discussed in another one of these market's comments, the cohort surveyed is Bilt account holders, and I personally believe that is a largely Millennial demographic.

Although, I reserve the right to be wrong about that 2nd paragraph. They may have changed the rules at some point.

@Quroe tough choices between Bottas and Horner

@Quroe more serious though, a lot of people got into F1 due to Drive to Survive in recent years where everyone gets a lot of exposure without helmets and race suit.

I mean check out Charles Leclerc's Instagram

@AlexanderTheGreater Huh! This will have been an interesting wake up call for me about how people think if F1 is a top 3 here.

Limit order is up for the entirety of this market if anybody wants to really drive the point home at market showdown.

@Quroe I myself would only buy YES on beach volleyball. I'm a simple man. 😭