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Will "The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

12% chance

Will "The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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Will "Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

16% chance

Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2026? *

92% chance

Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025?

5% chance

Will "2024 Unofficial LessWrong Census/Survey" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

4% chance

Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2030? *

86% chance

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

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Sorry that I suck everyone. I was gonna read the details and make a nuanced decision, but I keep procrastinating, so I'm just gonna go with the more obvious answer of YES.

@Quinn I think this can resolve

predictedYES

@Quinn also bump resolve please 🙏

@Quinn Can you please resolve this?

@Quinn bumpity bump

predictedYES

Can this resolve yet, or are there still disagreements about how it should be resolved?

sorry, this is a duplicate https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26

@Quinn meant to link to this https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-less-wrongs-big-red-button-be

@Quinn I think the resolution conditions are actually somewhat different here - "button is pushed" is different from "button is used to take down the site". Per https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26?commentId=HwrsGiZXKoLwG8M6z#comments , this market should already resolve YES, while it's unclear if the other one should.