Will Nvidia's market cap exceed 10% of the total S&P 500 market cap by 2030?
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Nvidia doesn’t have a monopoly on matrix multiplication.
I suspect much of the value of next-gen AI will accrue to the upper layers of the stack e.g. OS providers (Apple + Microsoft)
Just like much of the value of the Mac & iPhone goes to Apple not to Broadcom, Micron, Intel etc. (even before Apple started making their own chips)
For record, as of creating this market:
The S&P 500 has a market capitalization of $46.019 trillion dollars
NVIDIA has a market cap of $3.038 Trillion (6.6%)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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