The story so far:
Once upon a time in a distant and strange land (Oxford, UK), twenty-some researchers could be seen standing over a box labelled "AGI - do not touch", embroiled in heated discussion.
Full story here
The last market saw highs, lows, intruiguing plotlines, and market manipulation. Onwards 😤😤
In response to the market manipulation last time (my bad, there was a clear flaw in the market design) I am changing the resolution criteria this time. I will resolve the market by picking randomly from all responses, weighted by their final probabilities. This means there is no advantage (in expectation) to dumping money into one answer to get it to the top
More market details:
Interpret "sentence" loosely, it can be just a word or phrase
I will correct punctuation and spelling errors unless you tell me not to
I will stop doing this if the story gets boring, or offensive or something
I also reserve the right to pick a different answer if the winner is silly (i.e. kills the story), or we get a load of single words in a row or something
Close date updated to 2022-11-24 11:00 pm
"We should spend at least 10 million years deliberating about whether to let it out", one of them yelled, "it would be unethical not to!"was
"C'mon, what could go wrong?" said one of them, reaching towards the box.
"Aha!" cried one. "I predicted this exact month for its arrival. Praise my foresight, for I am well-calibrated!" "Ah, but is it really AGI?" queried another. "We should test it and see." is
The End.
"We must fine tune this AGI!" they chanted in unison. One of the researchers pounced for the box.🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finn | Ṁ149 |
| 2 |  Alana Xiang | Ṁ76 |
| 3 |  Elspeth | Ṁ21 |
| 4 |  Adam Svamp | Ṁ20 |
| 5 |  Victor Levoso | Ṁ14 |
I will resolve the market by picking randomly from all responses, weighted by their final probabilities. This means there is no advantage (in expectation) to dumping money into one answer to get it to the top
Surely dumping money into one answer is still advantageous if they're weighted according to their final probabilities? It honestly just seems better to pick subjectively and people should just bet according to what they think you'll like best — I'm sure you'll only pick sentences of the highest Qualyty.
@finnhambly hm ok I may end up doing that, seems like it's more likely to result in a good story anyway
Qualy I can screw up your entire new design by simply creating a prediction market on which answer will have the most votes at resolution.
What should the next sentence in the story be? (2/n), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition