What should the next sentence in the story be? (1/n)
31
31
resolved Nov 24
80%14%
in a distant and strange land (Oxford, UK), twenty-some researchers could be seen standing over a box labelled "AGI - do not touch", embroiled in heated discussion.
20%79%
qualy
0.0%
there
0.0%
in
0.0%
in a world without prediction markets
0.0%
Eliezer was about to write a tweet with the word rationalussy on it, but
0.0%
there was an anthropomorphic lightbulb looking to make friends and maximise utility.
0.0%
a lightbulb created a Twitter account — everyone laughed at its memes, but was completely unperturbed by its apparent sentience.
0.0%
a pair of secretive, malevolent actors donned a friendly internet pseudonym with the sole intention of capturing one particular billionaire's time and energy.
0.0%
a shrimp found itself feeling a little claustrophobic.
0.0%
a shrimp decided to make a Twitter account to advocate for itself.
0.0%
there was a business owner who was trying to improve the productivity of their paperclip factory.
0.0%
qualy decided to write a story
0.0%
there was a child drowning in a shallow pond that was filled with shrimps.
6%
A young man with an iron deficiency and a passion for Quentin Tarantino films left his home in search of an ideal romantic and sexual partner.
0.0%
there was a lightbulb who decided to cheer up their friends — who were, at the time, entangled in a crisis involving the loss of many billions of dollars — by starting a cute story game.
0.0%
Lifespan
0.1%
We should find a cure for death
0.0%
Our specimen had a thought. A thought where everyone alive today was able to live indefinitely
0.0%
A cure for all death and disease was spread across the land.

The story so far:

Once upon a time

Full story here

Market details:

  • Interpret "sentence" loosely, it can be just a word or phrase

  • I will pick the answer with the most votes (and resolve the market in that answer's favour)

  • I will correct punctuation and spelling errors unless you tell me not to

  • I will stop doing this if the story gets boring, or offensive or something

  • I also reserve the right to pick the second best answer if the top one is silly, or we get a load of single words in a row or something

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Ok I have made an executive decision, I'm picking the second answer which was the clear community favourite, I've also thrown 20% to "qualy" so as not to completely wipe out the ppl who voted on it at the end. Next time remember that Qualy works in mysterious ways and will ultimately reward goodness of heart and lightness of spirit. Next market to follow in a few mins!

Alright there was some last minute market manipulation 😤. I am honour bound to resolve in favour of the winning answer but I'll have my eye on you all next time

@Qualy looking back this was entirely foreseeable, although I do think the manipulators underestimated counterparty risk. I am this close 🤌 to resolving as the second answer

bought Ṁ90 of in a distant and str...

@Qualy You say manipulators but it was literally one whale

@AlanaXiang I had to switch positions or I was screwed :(

@Qualy You did say ‘I will pick the answer with the most votes’ without specifying the kind of votes. Twitter poll?

@1941159478 I did also reserve the right to pick the second best answer... hmmm I shall qonsult with my coqonspirators

@Qualy I have a suggestion. perhaps from the next market forward, implement a rule that each trader can only put in at most 100M in any sentence? and violator could risk his chosen answer being disqualified?

bought Ṁ20 of in a distant and str...

@Qualy A one-word "sentence" that's just your name does seem "silly," doesn't it?

@Qualy You can pick the answer more people bought instead.

Not sure if there's an easy way of checking that though.

@ChandraTMeadows next time I'm going to randomly pick the winner weighted by final probabilities. This will make the expected value of voting 0 so should fix this problem (I think)

@Qualy Yea that's smart. I think in that market expected value optimizer would actually always vote the least voted answer. That should result in a pretty even distribution of vote among all answers

@Qualy Simply buy up all the manifold bucks and redistribute them to ppl according to how rational they r

this is currently the market with the highest 24h volume lmao

@Qualy I’ve lost so much money on this market I’m crying

@AlanaXiang Omg guys… <3

This is the most effective altruism ever

@AlanaXiang u know it queen

@AlanaXiang for the next one I'm going to use softmax to pick the outcome so ppl don't lose money by betting on underdogs

@Qualy Yay

sold Ṁ9 of in a distant and str...

Help I'm getting market manipulation

bought Ṁ13 of A young man with an ...

I beg you people to be just slightly original

In case anyone wants to bet on the resolution of this market.

bought Ṁ5 of qualy

Oh wow I totally read 'next word' not 'next sentence' haha

bought Ṁ10 of qualy
sold Ṁ10 of qualy

@AlanaXiang I can't sell my 'there's now, or I'll lose a bunch of Manifold bux lol.

bought Ṁ10 of there was an anthrop...

@AlanaXiang it's still valid! Just perhaps not the most creatively enticing option..

bought Ṁ35 of there was an anthrop...

@finnhambly RIP my manibucks

bought Ṁ10 of a pair of secretive,...

@AlanaXiang u got dis