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Can this market resolves NO now, @Quadrifold ? March 10th has begun both in the U.S. and Gaza, and according to the description "For the market to resolve YES, a ceasefire has to start BEFORE March 10, 2024"

@mint resolved

@Quadrifold not correct close time. First, Ramadan is still not determined. Second the options for Ramadan is 11th or 12th at around 4am.

This is at least 24 hours premature.

@RanaG the description says March 10th so when Ramadan actually starts doesn't matter. But if this question does re-open, I hope you buy a lot of YES so this isn't just a waste of time 🙂

Market for the actual ceasefire date:

Basically this market implies that the deal has a high chance (50% conditional on a deal) of being broken early? Hamas is rejecting 40 days, so it has to be higher if any deal is made at all.

@riverwalk3 I don't doubt a deal will be made, but I have a feeling a lot of traders are underestimating the chance it is broken early. This market requires it lasts for nearly a month.

@mint I don’t believe a deal will happen at all, but I am using this market as a hedge.

what do you know? 😂

@RanaG Shump knows a lot

Seems like any deal agreed to has to be strictly worse from Israel’s perspective than the 40 days their current position is. Don’t think it’s that big of a difference with the March ceasefire market.

@acc thanks for the liquidity :D

Technically, Ramadan 2024 is like 600 years away ;)

@BrunoParga Obviously considering 2024 as the current year in Western calendar, in line with the dates used on this platform to resolve the markets.

@Quadrifold Obviously humor

Does a temporary ceasefire as a part of a hostage deal count? ( if its 30ish days)

@galtopazweiss Yes if it happens before March 10 and it lasts at least till the end of Ramadan, April 9, 2024

@Quadrifold Oh— so not just before Ramadan but all the way through it?

Got it - Start of Ramadan on March 1

@Quadrifold Wait, are you talking about Ramadan lasting to April 9th, or the ceasefire for this market to resolve YES

@Quadrifold wow okay, I missed these comments. the ceasefire has to start before Ramadan AND last all the way through until the end? RIP my mana.

@Quadrifold best to add those clarifications to the market description I think, to make it all really clear. because "before Ramadan" can be interpreted as an accepted ceasefire before the start of Ramadan - not necessarily one that lasts the full timeperiod.

@SusanneinFrance, March 10, I thought?