Will Gaza have a ceasefire before the beginning of Ramadan, 2024?
resolved Mar 10

This year, Ramadan is expected to begin in the evening on Sunday, March 10, 2024 and end on Tuesday, April 9, 2024.

For the market to resolve YES, a ceasefire has to start BEFORE March 10, 2024 and last -at least- till April 9, 2024.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Can this market resolves NO now, @Quadrifold ? March 10th has begun both in the U.S. and Gaza, and according to the description "For the market to resolve YES, a ceasefire has to start BEFORE March 10, 2024"

bought Ṁ10,000 NO

@mint resolved

@Quadrifold not correct close time. First, Ramadan is still not determined. Second the options for Ramadan is 11th or 12th at around 4am.

This is at least 24 hours premature.

@RanaG the description says March 10th so when Ramadan actually starts doesn't matter. But if this question does re-open, I hope you buy a lot of YES so this isn't just a waste of time 🙂

Market for the actual ceasefire date:

bought Ṁ150 NO

Basically this market implies that the deal has a high chance (50% conditional on a deal) of being broken early? Hamas is rejecting 40 days, so it has to be higher if any deal is made at all.

@riverwalk3 I don't doubt a deal will be made, but I have a feeling a lot of traders are underestimating the chance it is broken early. This market requires it lasts for nearly a month.

@mint I don’t believe a deal will happen at all, but I am using this market as a hedge.

opened aṀ3,500 NO at 40% order

what do you know? 😂

@RanaG Shump knows a lot

sold Ṁ76 YES

Seems like any deal agreed to has to be strictly worse from Israel’s perspective than the 40 days their current position is. Don’t think it’s that big of a difference with the March ceasefire market.

opened aṀ100 NO at 58% order

@acc thanks for the liquidity :D

Technically, Ramadan 2024 is like 600 years away ;)

@BrunoParga Obviously considering 2024 as the current year in Western calendar, in line with the dates used on this platform to resolve the markets.

@Quadrifold Obviously humor

Does a temporary ceasefire as a part of a hostage deal count? ( if its 30ish days)

predicted YES

@galtopazweiss Yes if it happens before March 10 and it lasts at least till the end of Ramadan, April 9, 2024

@Quadrifold Oh— so not just before Ramadan but all the way through it?

bought Ṁ10 YES

Got it - Start of Ramadan on March 1

@Quadrifold Wait, are you talking about Ramadan lasting to April 9th, or the ceasefire for this market to resolve YES

@Quadrifold wow okay, I missed these comments. the ceasefire has to start before Ramadan AND last all the way through until the end? RIP my mana.

@Quadrifold best to add those clarifications to the market description I think, to make it all really clear. because "before Ramadan" can be interpreted as an accepted ceasefire before the start of Ramadan - not necessarily one that lasts the full timeperiod.

@SusanneinFrance, March 10, I thought?

More related questions