Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of April?

Question

Resolves based on trusted news sources.

Edge Cases and Clarifications (Additions post-creation will be clearly marked):

Has to be a manned aircraft.

Iranian proxy groups in Iran count as Iran.

If they're outside Iran (e.g., Hezbollah, etc.), they don't count

If the vehicle successfully lands (e.g., runway or motorway), it doesn't count, regardless of injuries/fatalities. The aircraft would need to sustain significant damage upon "landing"/crashing for it to count.

Only shootdowns occurring after question creation count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (49 traders, as of Apr 11, 2026).