Source of truth: Coinbase BTC-USD hourly or shorter high/low candlestick data.
"Above" means "at or above", so a price of exactly $150,000.00 counts as "above".
If timezones are cruxial for the resolution of an option, that option resolves to 50%.
Market close date will be extended after 2026 for the remaining "above/below - anytime after" option.
Note: "by" 2026 means "before" 2026. There isn't any option "by end of 2026".
If Coinbase data becomes unavailable or unreliable, alternative credible sources such as Binance or Coingecko will be used. If the data source choice is cruxial for the resolution of an option, that option resolves to 50%.
Please feel free to comment with a screenshot or link and @Primer when some option can resolve early and I missed it.
Update 2025-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - "in" and "during" mean the same for option timeframes.
"always above - during" and "below - in" are exact complements; arbitrage between them is intended to be safe.
Update 2026-01-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "above - anytime after" option: The market close date will be extended each year until this option resolves Yes (or Manifold ceases to exist). This option will almost definitely resolve Yes eventually.
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@ChristopherRandles True, this will almost definitely resolve Yes sometimes. I'll extrnd the close date each year until they all resolve (or Manifold ceases to exist, etc.)
@Primer just to confirm I'm reading these right, is this the complement of "below - in" ? i.e. "in" and "during" mean the same thing?
@deagol Yeah, you're reading this right. Honestly hadn't realized those are exact complements. Should be safe to arbitrage.