Bitcoin * $150,000 * 2026?
10
1kṀ4748
Dec 31
86%
below - anytime after
85%
below - at end of
76%
above - anytime after
74%
always below - during
26%
above - in
15%
above - at end of
Resolved
YES
below - in

Source of truth: Coinbase BTC-USD hourly or shorter high/low candlestick data.

"Above" means "at or above", so a price of exactly $150,000.00 counts as "above".

If timezones are cruxial for the resolution of an option, that option resolves to 50%.

Market close date will be extended after 2026 for the remaining "above/below - anytime after" option.

Note: "by" 2026 means "before" 2026. There isn't any option "by end of 2026".

If Coinbase data becomes unavailable or unreliable, alternative credible sources such as Binance or Coingecko will be used. If the data source choice is cruxial for the resolution of an option, that option resolves to 50%.

Please feel free to comment with a screenshot or link and @Primer when some option can resolve early and I missed it.

  • Update 2025-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - "in" and "during" mean the same for option timeframes.

    • "always above - during" and "below - in" are exact complements; arbitrage between them is intended to be safe.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@Primer i think this and a couple more can resolve. Thanks!

bought Ṁ1 YES

@Primer just to confirm I'm reading these right, is this the complement of "below - in" ? i.e. "in" and "during" mean the same thing?

@deagol Yeah, you're reading this right. Honestly hadn't realized those are exact complements. Should be safe to arbitrage.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy