Resolution criteria

The FBI has confirmed the alleged letter from Jeffrey Epstein to Larry Nassar is fake, as of December 23, 2025. This market resolves YES if any credible evidence emerges that contradicts the FBI's determination and proves the letter is authentic. This would require either: (1) a formal reversal of the FBI's conclusion with documented evidence, or (2) independent forensic analysis from a recognized authority that definitively establishes the letter's authenticity. The market resolves NO if the FBI's determination stands without credible contradiction.

Background

A letter appearing to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein to serial sex abuser Larry Nassar, a former Michigan State University doctor, was among documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice, with the letter submitted by the FBI for handwriting analysis on July 31, 2020, after Epstein died in August 2019. The letter was found returned in the jail's mail room weeks after Epstein's death.

Considerations

The FBI concluded the letter was fake based on: the writing not appearing to match Jeffrey Epstein's, the letter being postmarked three days after Epstein's death out of Northern Virginia when he was jailed in New York, and the return address not listing the jail where Epstein was held and not including his inmate number, which is required for outgoing mail. While the DOJ statement said the FBI had confirmed the letter was "fake," it did not specifically say that conclusion was based on the 2020 handwriting analysis.