MANIFOLD
Who will win the AFL State of Origin in 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ1.1k
resolved Feb 14
100%99.0%
Victoria
0.8%
Western Australia
0.2%Other

Resolution criteria

The match will be played on 14 February 2026 at Optus Stadium in Perth, between Western Australia and Victoria. The winner will be determined by the team with the highest score at the end of the match, following standard AFL rules. Resolution will be based on the official final score as reported by the AFL at https://www.afl.com.au/origin.

Background

The state-based rivalry returns at the elite level for the first time in more than 25 years, having last been played in 1999 when Victoria played South Australia at the MCG. It will be Western Australia's first appearance in a state of origin match since 1998 and Victoria's first since 2020. Players are generally selected based on having played most of their junior games in a particular state or territory.

Considerations

The 2026 edition will be staged during the AFL pre-season and broadcast nationwide across Channel 7, Fox Sports, 7Plus and Kayo. This is a single match format rather than a series, with no draws possible under AFL rules.

  • Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the match is cancelled or postponed to another year, the market will resolve to Other.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ29
2Ṁ25
3Ṁ20
4Ṁ15
Sort by:

Other means game is cancelled or postponed to another year.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy